New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Betting Pick 07/12/19

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Last Updated: 2019-07-12

Miguel Rojas and the Miami Marlins are playing host to their NL East rival New York Mets at Marlins Park. SportsNet New York will be televising the action and the game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET.

New York Mets at Miami Marlins Odds

Oddsmakers have placed equal -105 moneyline odds on both of these teams. Bettors can wager on the game’s total with odds sitting at -110 for over 8.5 runs and -110 for under 8.5. There’s a runline of Mets -1.5 (+140) and Marlins +1.5 (-160) for this matchup.

The Marlins are 44-44 against the spread (ATS)despite being only 33-55 straight up (SU). They’ve lost 2.2 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 9.4 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven. The Mets have gone 40-50 SU this year and are 41-49 against the spread. They’ve lost 18.1 units for moneyline bettors and 15.9 units ATS. New York is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven.

Marlins games have an over/under record of 38-44-6 so far in 2019. The Mets have been a solid over bet with a total record of 50-32-8.

Southpaw Jason Vargas is getting the start for the visiting Mets. Vargas is 3-4 with a 3.77 ERA and 63 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with two strikeouts and a 3.60 ERA against Miami this year.

The Marlins are going with lefty Caleb Smith (4-4, 3.50 ERA), who has 88 punchouts and 21 walks as well as a 1.01 WHIP. Smith is 0-0 with eight strikeouts and a 3.60 ERA in one start against New York this year.

Miami’s pitchers have given up 4.5 runs per game overall this season as a unit. The team’s starters have an ERA of 3.92, a WHIP of 1.25 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.2. The bullpen has a 4.88 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 9.4 K/9. In 46 games against NL East opponents, Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.75 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.79.

Miami’s offense is putting up 3.5 runs per contest, including 3.5 per game against divisional foes and 2.2 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .261/.314/.367 over its last five matchups and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.

First baseman Miguel Rojas and second baseman Starlin Castro have led the Marlins’ offense this year. Rojas is slashing .295/.352/.374 with 90 hits, 26 RBIs and 32 runs scored, while Castro is batting .245 with six homers, 34 RBIs and 24 runs.

For the visiting squad, New York’s pitching staff allowed 5.2 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.45 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 9.24 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 5.63, along with a WHIP of 1.29.

The Mets offense has slashed .254/.327/.431 on its way to 4.7 runs scored per game this year, including 4.9 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Left fielder Jeff McNeil and first baseman Pete Alonso continue to lead New York’s hitters. McNeil is slashing .349/.409/.509 with seven home runs, 36 RBIs and 41 runs scored, while Alonso is hitting .280/.372/.634 with 30 homers, 68 RBIs and 57 runs scored.

The Mets have lost 0.4 units and are 12-9 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in 11 of those games, compared to eight that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Marlins have lost 1.2 units and are 14-9 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 12 of those games, as opposed to nine that’ve gone under.

New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Marlins, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER


Betting Trends

The under has cashed in five of Miami’s last seven games.

The Mets have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games. The Marlins have hit eight over their last 10.

The Mets have a team OPS of .758 this season and an OPS of .810 against left-handed pitchers. The Marlins’ OPS stands at .657 overall and .654 against southpaws.

Miami has recorded 22.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 21.0 over its last five.

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