New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick 09/20/19

The New York Mets are making a road trip to Cincinnati to square off against the Reds at Great American Ball Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET and SportsNet New York will broadcast this NL matchup.

New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds

New York (-145) is favored against Cincinnati (+135) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this night game at eight runs. The odds for betting on the game’s total sit at -115 for the over and -105 for the under. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the most recent runline odds standing at Mets -1.5 runs (+100) and Reds +1.5 runs (-120).

The Reds are 82-71 against the spread (ATS)despite being only 72-81 straight up (SU). The team has lost 7.7 units for moneyline bettors while earning 0.8 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven. The Mets are 79-73 SU and have gone 79-73 ATS. They’re down 6.7 units for moneyline gamblers and 0.3 units ATS. New York has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven.

Cincinnati games have had an over/under record of 57-88-8 in 2019. The Mets have been a decent over bet with a total record of 76-64-12.

Jacob deGrom will get the start for New York. The right-handed deGrom (9-8, 2.61 ERA) has racked up 239 punchouts in 190 innings so far. He’s 0-0 with six strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against Cincinnati this year.

The Reds will put the ball in the right hand of Luis Castillo (15-6, 3.22 ERA), who has 211 strikeouts and 72 walks as well as a 1.14 WHIP. Castillo is 0-0 with seven strikeouts and a 2.70 ERA in one start against New York this year.

New York’s pitchers have allowed 4.6 runs per game and its starters own a 3.90 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 9.18 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 5.13, along with a K-per-9 of 9.55.

The Mets offense has slashed .258/.330/.441 on its way to 4.9 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.0 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 4.4 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

New York’s hitters have been paced by shortstop Amed Rosario and left fielder Jeff McNeil. Rosario is slashing .287/.324/.427 with 13 home runs, 64 RBIs, 71 runs and 17 steals, while McNeil (.318/.388/.531) has produced 22 homers, 71 RBIs and 79 runs scored.

In the home-team dugout, Cincinnati’s pitchers have allowed 4.4 runs per game overall in 2019. Its starting pitching staff has a 4.02 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.44 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 9.9 K/9.

The Cincinnati hitters have produced 4.4 runs per outing, including 3.7 per game over its last 10 games and 2.4 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .199/.291/.311 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that span.

Third baseman Eugenio Suarez and shortstop Jose Iglesias have led the Reds’ batters this year. Suarez is hitting .272/.354/.581 with 48 home runs, 102 RBIs and 86 runs scored, while Iglesias has put up a line of .288/.315/.411 with 11 homers, 54 RBIs and 59 runs.

The Mets have lost 0.3 units and are 58-55 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 59 of those games, compared to 45 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 0.8 units and are 62-52 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 43 of those games, as opposed to 66 that’ve cashed the under.

New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER