New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Betting Pick 04/14/19

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Last Updated: 2019-04-14

Freddie Freeman and the Atlanta Braves are playing host to their NL East foe New York Mets at SunTrust Park. The matchup can be viewed across the country on ESPN and the first pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET.

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves Odds

New York (-150) is favored over Atlanta (+140) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this night game at 8 runs. The odds for playing the game’s total stand at -120 for the over and +100 for the under. This game currently has a runline of Mets -1.5 (-105) and Braves +1.5 (-115).

The Braves are 8-6 straight up (SU) and 6-7 against the spread (ATS). The team’s gained 0.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 0.4 units ATS. Atlanta has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the under has cashed in five of those seven. The Mets have gone 9-5 SU this year and are 9-4 ATS. They’ve accumulated 3.6 units for gamblers taking the moneyline in this young season and 4.7 units ATS. New York has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the over has cashed in four of those seven.

Atlanta games have an over/under record of 5-6-2 so far in 2019. The Mets have been a decent over bet with a total record of 9-3-1.

Right-hander Jacob deGrom (2-1, 3.18 ERA) will get the nod for New York. deGrom recorded 269 strikeouts in 217 innings last year (32 starts) and finished the season 10-9 overall with a 1.70 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. He made six starts against Atlanta in 2018 and compiled a 1-2 record against the Braves with a 0.88 ERA and 50 strikeouts.

The Braves are rolling with righty Julio Teheran (1-1, 6.00 ERA) as their starter. Teheran struck out 162 hitters across 175 innings last year (31 starts), while finishing the season 9-9 overall with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. He made five starts against the Mets a year ago and compiled a 1-2 record with a 1.65 ERA and 26 strikeouts.

Atlanta’s pitchers have allowed 4.6 runs per game overall in 2019 as a unit. The team’s starting pitching staff has an ERA of 4.54, a WHIP of 1.41 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.4. The bullpen has a 4.53 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 9.7 K/9. In nine games against NL East opponents, Braves starters have an ERA of 5.82 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.19.

The Atlanta hitters have produced 5.4 runs per contest, including 4.1 per game against divisional foes and 6.2 per game over their last five. The team has hit .286/.359/.480 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

The Braves’ hitters have been led by first baseman Freddie Freeman and second baseman Ozzie Albies. Freeman is slashing .365/.484/.519 with 19 hits, seven RBIs and 14 runs scored, and Albies is hitting .321 with 18 hits, two RBIs and seven runs scored.

In the visiting dugout, New York’s pitchers have allowed 5.9 runs per game and its starters own a 4.66 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 10.43 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 6.18, along with a WHIP of 1.25 and a K-per-9 of 10.06.

Mets hitters have slashed .266/.358/.443 on their way to 6.3 runs scored per game this season, including 5.9 runs per game against divisional foes and 7.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

First baseman Pete Alonso and right fielder Michael Conforto have led New York’s hitters. Alonso is hitting .360/.439/.860 with six home runs, 17 RBIs and 11 runs scored, while Conforto is hitting .340/.453/.623 with three homers, nine RBIs and 13 runs scored.

The Mets have gained 2.5 units and are 6-4 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in six of those games, as opposed to three that’ve hit the under against righties. On the other hand, the Braves have lost 1.8 units and are 4-5 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in three of those games, compared to five that went under the total.

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves Free MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER


Betting Notes

New York has recorded 19 extra-base hits over its last five outings. Atlanta has 18 XBH over its last five.

The Mets have hit 15 home runs in their last 10 games. The Braves have hit 13 over their last 10.

The Mets have a total OPS of .801 this season and an OPS of .783 against right-handed pitchers. The Braves’ OPS sits at .813 overall and .779 against righties.

Atlanta has posted 23.8 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 26.2 over its last five.

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