Last Updated: 2018-01-05
The 5-10 New York Jets got off to a pretty good start to the 2017 campaign. It seems like just yesterday that they were 3-2 and challenging for the division lead. Well, that was the pinnacle of the season for Gang Green as they have come crashing back to Earth having dropped 8 of their last 10. Those that took them to exceed their projected season win total of 4.5 are thrilled that they won themselves some plus money. The Jets have also been kind to their backers as they have gone 9-5-1 ATS including covers in 3 of their last 4 games. These guys have dropped 5 of their last 6 games and will face a Patriots team that will be motivated to win. Here’s an interesting stat for all you spread bettors: The Jets have played 9 games against teams with winning records and they covered in 7 of those games. This includes their last game against New England when they lost 24-17 as 9-point dogs. These guys rise to the occasion.
The Patriots got off to a shaky start this season. There was a lot of panic around Patriots nation when they started the season 2-2. They were scoring a lot of points but their defense couldn’t stop anyone. They quickly turned things around and have gone on to win 10 of their last 11. Not only are they 9-2 ATS in those games, they have also allowed just 2 teams to score more than 17 points on them during that span. Miami scored 27 against them in Week 14 and the Steelers scored 24 in Week 15. New England will clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win against the Jets so they should be pretty jacked up. Those that took the Patriots’ to beat the projected win total of 12.5 will also be watching with interest.
Jets at Patriots
Spread: New York Jets +17 (-135), New England Patriots -17 (+115) at 5Dimes Sportsbook
Moneyline: New York Jets +800, New England Patriots -1250
Total: Over 44 (-110), Under 44 (-110)
New York Jets
Foxboro hasn’t been kind to the New York Jets. They are currently riding a 6-game losing streak at Gillette Stadium which means you need to go back to 2011 to find their last win there. However, Jets backers have been making money in this spot. The Jets are 4-2-1 ATS in Foxboro since 2011. Over bettors have been raking it in too as the Over has prevailed in 6 of the last 8 times that the Jets have played in Foxboro. It’s true that Bryce Petty doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence with his 47.4 completion rate and his lone touchdown pass being overshadowed by his 3 interceptions. He certainly didn’t look very good in Week 16 against the Chargers when he connected on 15 of his 28 passes for a meager 119 yards and an interception. He was unable to complete anything longer than 16 yards. The Patriots are allowing an average of 254 passing yards against which is the league’s 4th-highest total but you need to consider that most teams have been forced to go through the air due to playing from behind. Still, they can be beaten through the air and teams average 7.4 yards per completion.
The Jets pick up an average of 110 yards on the ground per game and 4.1 yards per carry. Bilal Powell had a very strong Week 16 rushing for 145 yards and a score on 19 carries. This is one area where the Jets hold an edge. New England yields 4.8 yards per carry which is second-most in the league. The running backs should be able to rack up yards against the Patriots. The only problem is that a significant deficit will pretty much force the Jets to go to the air. Still, expect them to run a lot.
C. Peake (Ankle), W. Johnson (Hip), B. Winters (Abdominal), M. Wilkerson (Coach’s Decision), D. Donahue (Elbow), and J. Leggett (Knee) are questionable.
New England Patriots
The Patriots continue to put up points and stifle their opponents. They toyed with the Bills in the first half of their Week 16 game but they came on strong and blew the doors off Buffalo in the latter stages of that game. Brady completed 21 of 28 attempts for 224, a pair of touchdowns, and an interception. As usual, the veteran quarterback spread the ball around very well connecting with 9 different receivers. He should be able to move the ball against a Jets pass defense that allows 7.2 yards per completion and gives opposing quarterbacks a 91 QB rating.
Dion Lewis had a good day against Buffalo’s weak rushing defense. He scrambled for 129 yards and a touchdown on 24 attempts. He also caught all five of his targets for another 24 yards and a TD. The Jets have allowed an average of 116 rushing yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry. Look for the running game to be used a lot in this one.
K. Van Noy (Calf), C. Hogan (Shoulder), J. White (Ankle), and V. Valentine (Knee) are questionable while A. Branch (Knee) and R. Burkhead (Knee) are out indefinitely.
Jets at Patriots Betting Lines
This one opened with New England being moneyline favorites of around -2500 but that number has come down and can be had from anywhere between -1250 to -2000 depending on the book. The spread opened as New England -16.5 and it currently sits at -15.5 at most sportsbooks although it can be had at -16 and -17 at a few others. This one will likely be a popular play on teasers. The opening total of 46 has come down to 44 at most bookmakers and it will likely remain stable as we approach game time. 17 is a lot of points to give and the Jets have shown an uncanny ability to cover in spots like this.
My Pick: New York Jets +17 (-135)
Total: Under 44 (-110)
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