The Islanders and Lightning are set to face off at 7:00 ET on ESPN+. The Lightning will host the game at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL. The over/under for this game is set at 6.5 goals, and the Lightning are the -1.5 goal favorites against the Islanders in a Eastern conference matchup.


The Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5

This game will be played at Amalie Arena at 7:00 ET on Saturday, March 30th.


  • Despite being 1.5 goal underdogs, we predict the Islanders to come out on top with a final score of 4-3.
  • We like the Islanders on the moneyline (+129)
  • The Islanders are also our pick on the spread at +1.5

Will New York Come Through as Road Underdogs?

Heading into this game, the Islanders are 10th in the Eastern Conference with 77 points and a record of 31-26-15. On the road, they have gone 15-16-5 this season.

Over their last ten games, the Islanders are just 3-7 and have lost two straight games in which they were favored. In games against other teams in the Eastern Conference, they have gone 19-23 this season.

As the underdog, the Islanders have gone 26-12 vs. the puck line this season. Overall, their puck line record is 35-37, including going 2-1 vs. the puck line in their last three games.

So far, New York has dropped 23 games by multiple goals and 18 by just one goal. Their average scoring margin on the road this year is -.5 goals per game, and their road puck line record is 20-16.

For the season, the average number of goals per game in matchups featuring New York is 6.3. The season’s average over/under line is currently at 6. The Islanders come in with an over/under record of 39-29-4.

When looking at their past three road matchups, New York has an puck line record of 1-2 while averaging 2 per game. The team went 1-2 overall in these games.

On the offensive side, the Islanders are scoring an 3 goals per game this season, ranking 23rd in the NHL. When it came to shots on target per game, they are 20th in the league. Coming into the game, the Islanders have a 12-12 record when they have more shots on goal than their opponent. When they have fewer shots on goal, they are 19-14.

New York will be looking for a good game from Bo Horvat who leads the team in scoring with 29 goals, ranking 32nd in the NHL. Along with his scoring, he has come up with 34 assists so far.

In terms of defense, the Lightning head into the game ranked 27th in goals allowed. On average, opponents are taking 29.2 shots per game against Tampa Bay. So far, they are 11th in shutouts, achieving 4 shutouts.

Entering the game, goalie Semyon Varlamov has started 21 games this season. His current record stands at 9-7, and his save percentage is 0.509%.

Can the Lightning Hold Strong at Home?

At home this season, the Lightning have won 22 of their 35 games, and they have won three straight games at home. Over their last ten games, Tampa Bay has gone 8-2, and they are 4-1 in their last five games. In the Eastern Conference standings, the Lightning are in 6th place.

For the year, Tampa Bay has gone 40-25-7, and they have been favored in 42 of their 72 games. As the favorite, the Lightning have gone 27-13-2 this year, and they have won four straight games when favored. Against other teams in the Atlantic Division, Tampa Bay has gone 9-11 this season.

At home, the Lightning have gone 20-15 vs. the puck line this season and 38-34 overall. They have 29 wins by multiple goals compared to 11 wins by one goal.

Overall, Tampa Bay’s average scoring margin is +.2 goals per game, and they have gone 19-23 vs. the puck line as the favorite. In their last 10 home games, the Lightning have gone just 4-6 vs. the puck line.

The average goal total for Tampa Bay’s games is sitting at 6.8. The average over/under line for the season is 6.5. The Lightning come in with an over/under record of 35-33-4.

Although New York has a straight up record of 1-2 in their last three road games, they have not held up as well vs the puck line going 1-2. The team averaged 2 goals per game in these games.

For their offensive performance, the Lightning come in averaging 3.5 goals per game this season, which is 6th in the NHL. In the category of shots on goal per game, they are 24th in the league. This season, the Lightning are 22-12 when getting more shots on goal than their opponents. And in games with fewer shots on goal, they have a 17-11 record.

Tampa Bay’s leading goal scorer is Nikita Kucherov. So far this season, he has 42 goals, placing him 8th in the NHL. Kucherov also comes into the game with 82 assists.

Tampa Bay defense takes on the Islanders ranked 27th in goals allowed. On average, opponents are averaging 29.2 shots per game against Tampa Bay. They also are 11th in shutouts, with 4 shutouts.

Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy comes into the game having made 45 starts this season. So far, his record is 27-16 and he has a save percentage of 0.836%.