Don’t miss out on the NCAA showdown between the Aggies and Hilltoppers. The game is starting at 3:00 ET on ESPN+, and it’s hosted by the Hilltoppers at E. A. Diddle Arena in Bowling Green, KY. Get ready to place your bets! The over/under line for this matchup is currently at 154.5 points, and Western Kentucky is favored by -9 to win at home against New Mexico State.


The Pick: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -9

This game will be played at E. A. Diddle Arena at 3:00 ET on Saturday, February 17th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 79-66 in favor of the Hilltoppers.
  • Not only will Western Kentucky pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -9.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 154.5 points, and we like the under with a projected 145 points.

Will the Aggies Pull Through as the Away Underdog?

Heading into tonight’s game, the Aggies are 11-14 overall and have lost their last two games. Their record in Conference USA is 5-5, compared to a 6-9 mark in non-conference games.

On the road this season, New Mexico State has gone 0-12, and their average scoring margin is -16.2 points per game. Over their last 12 road games, they have not won a single one.

As the underdog this season, the Aggies have gone 6-9 against the spread. Their overall ATS mark is 9-11-1, and their road ATS record is 4-8. Over their last three road games, New Mexico State is 0-3 vs. the spread.

This season, the over/under record for New Mexico State is 11-10 and today’s over/under line of 154.5 is higher than the average over/under line in their games this year (140.3). So far, 17 of their games have finished with fewer points than today’s over/under line. Over their last three games, their games have averaged 132 points compared to their season average of 142 points per game.

The New Mexico State offense is coming off a game where they scored 69 points against Middle Tennessee. They posted a field goal percentage of 47.6% and connected on 3 threes. The top scorer for the Aggies was Jaden Harris with 22 points, while Femi Odukale also chipped in with 14 points.

The Aggies’ defense is presently ranked 159th nationally, allowing an average of 71.8 points per contest. So far, the New Mexico State defense is giving up an average of 9.4 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 12.3 times per game (623rd).

Will the Hilltoppers Pull Through as the Favored Home Team?

Western Kentucky has been strong at home this season, going 8-3, including a 9-1 record over their last ten games at home. They come into this game as 9-point favorites, and they have gone 9-3 when favored this season.

Overall, Western Kentucky has won four straight games, and they are 18-7 on the year. Their average scoring margin at home is +4.8 points per game.

Western Kentucky has an overall ATS record of 14-8 this season, going 6-5 vs. the spread at home. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Hilltoppers are 6-4 vs. the spread.

Western Kentucky’s over/under record for the season is 10-12, and the average scoring total in their games this year is 153.5 points. Today’s over/under line of 154.5 is higher than the average OU line in their games this year (150.8). So far, 13 of their games have finished with more points than today’s OU line. Over their last three games, their over/under record is 2-1, and the average scoring total in those games is 151 points.

In their recent matchup, the Western Kentucky offense ended with 90 points against UTEP. They finished with an overall field goal percentage of 56.7% and made 6 threes. On the offensive front, the Hilltoppers have a season-long field goal percentage of 47%, ranking 74th nationally. When it comes to three-point shooting, they are ranked 207th in terms of percentage and 248th in three-pointers made.

So far, the Hilltoppers’ defense is ranked 230th in the country at 74.4 points per contest. Against UTEP in their most recent game, the Western Kentucky defense gave up a total of 80 points while allowing UTEP to hit 56% of their shots.