The NFL action carries on with Week 6 and we have this AFC clash in Cleveland on Sunday, October 16, so make sure you read the best Patriots vs. Browns betting pick and odds.

Cleveland is desperate to avoid the third loss in a row when they host New England at L FirstEnergy Stadium. The Browns are -2.5 favorites on MyBookie Sportsbook, while the total is set at 43 points. These AFC rivals have met once in 2021, and the Patriots dismantled the Browns 45-7 in Foxborough.

Patriots shut the Lions down at home

The New England Patriots (2-3, 2-2-1 ATS) displayed their best performance of the season with a 29-0 home victory over the Detroit Lions. That win snapped a two-game losing streak and came at a great moment for the Pats, who played great defensively. Perhaps the moment that decided the tilt came in the second quarter when Kyle Dugger returned a fumble for a 59-yard touchdown.

Bailey Zappe completed 17 of 21 passes for 188 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Jakobi Meyers was on the receiving end of that TD pass from Zappe and also led all the receivers with 111 yards on seven catches. On the ground, Rhamondre Stevenson had the game of his life as he posted career-high 161 yards on 25 carries. Defensively, the Pats had four players with five tackles: Jahlani Tavai, Adrian Phillips, Kyle Dugger, and Ja’Whaun Bentley.

QB Brian Hoyer (concussion), LB Ronnie Perkins (undisclosed), and Damien Harris (hamstring) are out indefinitely. QB Mac Jones (ankle), WR Nelson Agholor (hamstring), DE Lawrence Guy (shoulder), and CB Jonathan Jones (ankle) are questionable to play against Cleveland on Sunday.

Browns suffered a tight home loss to the Chargers

The Cleveland Browns (2-3, 2-3 ATS) lost the second game in a row and it was again a one-possession game. This time around, the Browns fell short 30-28 to the Los Angeles Chargers at home, which is the third game this season they lost by three points or fewer. Cleveland took a 14-0 lead in the opening quarter and entered the final 15 minutes with a 28-27 lead, but the visitors scored a game-winning FG in the fourth.

Jacoby Brissett completed 21 of 34 passes for 230 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Cleveland was excellent on the ground and registered three rushing touchdowns. Nick Chubb led the team with 134 yards and two scores on 17 attempts, while Kareem Hunt added one touchdown. When it comes to passing, David Njoku and Amari Cooper combined for 164 yards on 13 receptions (18 targets), and the latter caught that lone TD pass from Brissett. On defense, Denzel Ward and Jacob Phillips were rock-solid with 21 tackles combined.

QB Deshaun Watson (suspension), LB Deion Jones (shoulder), and CB Denzel Ward (concussion) are unavailable to face New England on Sunday. DE Jadeveon Clowney (knee), G Joel Bitonio (elbow), and DE Myles Garrett (shoulder) are questionable.


New England:

  • 1-4-1 ATS in the last six road games
  • 0-4-1 ATS in the last five vs. AFC rivals


  • 6-2 ATS in the last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record

New England Patriots vs. Cleveland Browns Pick  

After suffering consecutive tight losses, I am backing the Browns to respond and beat the Patriots, who are rather limited offensively. The visitors will rely on Rhamondre Stevenson to run with the ball, but unlike the Browns, who can do damage from both ground and air, New England with Bailey Zappe under the center is not as dangerous. Nick Chubb and Amari Cooper will have to be playmakers for Cleveland, and I am backing them to lead the Browns to a win. The Patriots do have a solid defense that allows 19.6 ppg, but that shouldn’t be a problem for Cleveland’s offense which scored 20+ points in every game this season and is averaging 26.6 ppg.

Pick: Take the Browns at -2.5 (-110)

The Total

Both teams are relying on their run offense to win games. The Browns have the league-best run offense that averages 192.4 yards per game, while the Patriots are in the top 10 in that segment with 138.0 ypg. Rhamondre Stevenson and Nick Chubb will see a lot of action and will carry the ball quite often, so I don’t expect to see many passing touchdowns. Therefore, I don’t think we will have a high-scoring affair here. Under is 11-5 in the Patriots’ last 16 road games; Under is 6-1 in the Brown’s previous seven games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game, while Under is 7-1 in Cleveland’s last eight vs. a team with a losing record.

Pick: Go Under 44.5 (-135)