New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Pick
- Updated: September 28, 2012
Date/Time: September 30, 1:00 pm EST
NFL Odds from Bookmaker
Point Spread: Patriots -4
NFL Betting Game Trends
New England Patriots
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England’s last 5 games
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England’s last 12 games
- New England is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
- New England is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England’s last 6 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo’s last 6 games
- Buffalo is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games
- Buffalo is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
- Buffalo is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo’s last 9 games at home
NFL Pick – Week 4
The New England Patriots are accustomed to getting off to a fast start, but at 1-2 that hasn’t happened this year. The Buffalo Bills started the season with an ugly loss to the Jets, but they have bounced back to win their last two games. These teams split the season series last year. Who will pick up an important divisional victory this Sunday?
The New England Patriots lost a stunner at home to the Arizona Cardinals two weeks ago. The Patriots didn’t look like themselves in that loss. Last weekend, the Patriots let a late lead slip away as the Baltimore Ravens beat them 31-30 on a slightly-controversial last second field goal. It will be interesting to see how the team responds to this adversity; because it isn’t something they normally have to go through. The offense has still been very good, but concerns are growing about Tom Brady’s lack of weapons on the outside again. Wes Welker hasn’t been himself, and the Patriots are lacking a deep threat. Remember, when this Patriots offense was at their best they had Randy Moss to help stretch the defense.
New England’s defense has been a weakness for the last couple years. This unit was unable to come up with a big stop when they had to last week in Baltimore. The Patriots have been good against the run this year, but the secondary has been a problem. Overall, the defense is improved from a year ago. New England is allowing 21.3 points per game.
Buffalo has had tons of injury issues in the first three weeks of the season. The Bills saw star running back Fred Jackson get hurt in week one. C.J. Spiller stepped in and dominated. In fact, Spiller leads the NFL in rushing yards right now. Last week Spiller suffered a shoulder injury, and he will miss this week’s game. Fortunately for the Bills, it appears Fred Jackson will be back sooner than expected. Jackson is listed as probable for this Sunday’s game. Buffalo is third in the NFL in rushing yards, but the passing attack hasn’t been able to get going. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw three interceptions in week one, but he hasn’t turned it over since. If he can continue to take care of the football, this offense can score in bunches.
Buffalo’s defense has been a problem over the past few years. They are slowly getting better, but it will take some time for them to correct all their problems. Nick Barnett leads the team in tackles so far this year. Marcell Dareus gives the team a very good defensive tackle in the middle of the defense. Stephon Gilmore looks like a talented corner, but he doesn’t have the experience needed yet. Buffalo is allowing 26.3 points per game so far this season.
The Patriots have a history of bouncing back from bad games. New England is 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games following a straight-up loss. The Patriots are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against Buffalo. I think New England gets back on track here and covers the spread.
New England 31 Buffalo 24
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