Planning on watching today’s Wolf Pack and Lobos game? Catch the action at The Pit in Albuquerque, NM, as the Lobos hosts this showdown at 10:00 ET on FS1. The over/under for this game is set at 153.5 points, and New Mexico is favored by -8.5 vs. Nevada in a Mountain West conference matchup.


The Pick: Nevada Wolf Pack +8.5

This game will be played at The Pit at 10:00 ET on Sunday, January 28th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 75-70 in favor of the Lobos.
  • Even though we have New Mexico winning straight-up, we like Nevada at +8.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 153.5 points, and we like the under with a projected 145 points.

Can the Wolf Pack Offense Score Enough in Albuquerque?

Heading into Wednesday night’s matchup with New Mexico, Nevada has gone 6-4 on the road this season compared to a 10-1 mark at home. The Wolf Pack are 2-1 as underdogs this season, and they have gone 3-2 over their last five road games.

Overall, Nevada is 16-4 this season and 3-3 in Mountain West play. They are coming off a 77-64 win over Colorado State and have a scoring differential of +4.1 on the road this season.

As the underdog, Nevada has gone 2-1 vs. the spread this season. On the road, their ATS mark is 6-3, including a 1-2 record in their last three games. Overall, the Wolf Pack are 12-8 vs. the spread this year.

This season, the over/under record for Nevada games is 8-12 and their games have averaged 142.4 points per game. Today’s over/under line of 153.5 is higher than the average over/under line in their games (143) and their games have finished with more points than today’s line in four of their 20 games. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 153 points.

In their recent game, the Wolf Pack’s offense concluded with 77 points, consistent with their ongoing season average of 77 points per contest. One area that the Nevada offense has been good this season is getting to the line. Currently, they are 14th in free-throw attempts per contest. Overall, they have a field goal percentage of 47%.

So far this season, the Nevada defense has been performing well, ranking 41st in the country at 65.4 points allowed per contest. Against Colorado State in their most recent game, the Nevada defense gave up a total of 64 points while allowing Colorado State to hit 53% of their shots.

Can New Mexico Deliver Being Favored at Home?

With a win streak of three games, New Mexico has an overall record of 17-3. They have gone 4-2 in Mountain West play compared to 13-1 in non-conference games. At home, the Lobos are a perfect 9-0 this season, and they have won their last 10 games at home.

For the year, New Mexico has been favored in 16 of their 20 games, going 15-1 in those matchups. Their average scoring margin at home is +20.2 points per game. In their last game, the Lobos defeated San Jose State by a score of 95-75.

As the favorite this season, New Mexico has an ATS record of 13-3. At home, the Lobos have gone 8-1 vs. the spread this year and are 7-1 in their last 10 home games vs. the spread. In their last three games as the favorite, New Mexico is 3-0 ATS.

On the season, the over/under record for New Mexico games is 9-9 and today’s line of 153.5 is very close to the average over/under line in their games (153.1). So far, their games have averaged 152.6 points. Over their last three games, the over/under record is 2-0 and the average scoring total in those games is 168 points.

Coming off a good offensive performance, New Mexico’s offense scored 95 points against San Jose State. Their field goal percentage for the game was 50.7%, and they went 17/26 from the free-throw line. The team’s top scorer is Donovan Dent, who enters today’s matchup with an average of 14.9, while JT Toppin also carries a PPG average of 13.4 into the game.

So far, the Lobos’ defense is ranked 106th in the country at 69.4 points per contest. In their previous game vs. San Jose State, the Spartans finished with a field goal percentage of 47% and a total of 75 points vs. New Mexico.