Nevada vs. No. 24 San Diego State College Football Betting Pick 11/9/19


The Nevada Wolf Pack and No. 24 San Diego State Aztecs are ready to face off on the grass at SDCCU Stadium. This key MWC matchup will get going at 10:30 p.m. ET and you can witness the action live on ESPN2. When these two teams met last year, Nevada earned the win 28-24.

Nevada vs. No. 24 San Diego State Betting Odds 11/9/2019

Nevada is projected as the underdog and is currently getting 17 points in this MWC game. If they are wanting to take the moneyline, bettors would currently have to wager $1,400 in order to win $100 back on the Aztecs (-1400). The Wolf Pack are getting +780 moneyline odds. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 40.5 points. If the favorite falls down early on, it’ll likely produce a worthy in-game betting opportunity.

With the spread opening at -17 and the O/U originally set at 41, bookmakers have moved the odds a little.

Each of these teams has been profitable this year as the Wolf Pack have gained 5.0 units while the Aztecs are up 7.5 units.

The Wolf Pack are 5-4 straight up (SU), including 2-3 SU against MWC opponents. The Aztecs are 7-1 SU overall and 4-1 SU in conference play.

The Wolf Pack are coming off a resounding 21-10 victory over New Mexico last weekTheir defense allowed the Lobos to run for 109 yards on 29 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Ahmari Davis had a good day for the Lobos in that one with 80 rushing yards and a score on 15 attempts. On the offensive side, Carson Strong completed 28 passes for 305 yards and two touchdowns. Toa Taua (just 28 yards on 17 rush attempts, one TD) and Devonte Lee (68 yards on nine carries) propelled the ground attack while Romeo Doubs (11 receptions, 167 yards, one TD) and Elijah Cooks (six catches, 74 yards, one TD) manned the receiving duties in the win.

San Diego State just put together a 20-17 win over UNLV a couple of weeks ago. The defense allowed the Rebels to rush for 121 yards on 33 attempts. Randal Grimes had a good outing in the defeat for UNLV, posting 121 yards and a score on five catches. For San Diego State, Ryan Agnew completed 14-of-23 passes for 185 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Juwan Washington (89 yards on 16 rush attempts) spearheaded the running game as Kobe Smith (seven receptions, 78 yards) and Jesse Matthews (two catches, 15 yards) led the receiving attack in the win.

Nevada has run the ball on 49.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while San Diego State has an overall rush percentage of 61.8 percent. The Wolf Pack have produced 120 rush yards per game (including 109 per game against Mountain West opponents) and have 10 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Aztecs are putting up 150 rush yards per game (142 in conference) and have seven total rushing TDs.

It seems like the Aztecs ought to be the more disruptive team in the trenches, as their offensive line has given up only 15 sacks while their D-line has registered 19 sacks. The Wolf Pack O-line has allowed 23 sacks and their defense has created only 14 sacks.

The Wolf Pack offense has tallied 238 yards per contest in the air overall (246 per game versus conference opposition) and has eight passing scores so far. The Aztecs have put up 178 pass yards per contest (182.0 in the MWC) and have 10 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Nevada has let opponents run for an average of 146 yards and throw for 268 yards per game. The San Diego State D has allowed 213.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 69.9 yards per game on the ground. The Aztecs are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.76 to opponents, while the Wolf Pack have allowed a 7.73 ANY/A.

Strong has put up 1,034 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 108-of-174 attempts with five passing touchdowns and five interceptions. Strong’s got a 4.54 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.98 over the last two games.

In the other locker room, Ryan Agnew has completed 127-of-199 passes for 1,339 yards, 10 TDs and three INTs. Agnew’s ANY/A sits at 6.05 for the season and 4.77 over his last two outings.

Nevada Wolf Pack at San Diego State Aztecs Free Pick

SU Winner – San Diego State, ATS Winner – San Diego State, O/U – Under


Betting Notes

San Diego State has lost one fumble this season while Nevada has lost seven.

The San Diego State defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 19 times this season. Nevada has registered 14 sacks.

As a team, Nevada has produced 2.7 yards per carry over its last three games and 2.3 over its last two.

San Diego State has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.5 over its last two.

Over its last three matches, San Diego State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The Over/Under for Nevada’s last game was set at 58. The under cashed in the team’s 21-10 victory over New Mexico.

Over its last three games, Nevada is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.

The Over/Under for San Diego State’s previous game was 44. The under cashed in the team’s 20-17 win over UNLV.

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