NCAA Football Free Pick: Texas Longhorns vs. Kansas State Wildcats

Texas Longhorns
(4-4, 2-6 ATS)

Kansas State Wildcats
(5-3, 4-4 ATS)

Two teams that are in dire need to get back in the saddle in the Big XII are going to be meeting in the Little Apple for a college football betting affair televised on ESPN. The Kansas State Wildcats will try to extend the misery for the Texas Longhorns.

What in the heck is going on with the Longhorns this year? They really didn’t lose all that much from last season’s team that went to the BCS Championship, but since the title game, they have won just four of their L/9 games outright. The good news is that this is the last road game on the season, but the bad news is that Texas hasn’t won a game at home since September 11th and has three home games left to the season. A bowl game isn’t a foregone conclusion, though that would certainly be the case with a win in Manhattan on Saturday. There’s a point in the year when HC Mack Brown just has to realize that the QB Garrett Gilbert experiment is failing. Gilbert is only completing 59.6 percent of his passes for 1,788 yards with six TDs and nine picks. There’s a point that backup QB Case McCoy deserves a shot. Something should change in the rushing game as well. Texas has always utilized a plethora of backs, but this is getting to be absurd. No one even has 300 rushing yards this season, and we are eight games into the year. The Horns rank No. 80 in the nation on the ground at just 140.6 yards per game.

The Wildcats have taken it on the chin in three of their last four games overall, getting creamed by the Nebraska Cornhuskers and Oklahoma State Cowboys in the interim. This is the last home game of the season, and marks one last chance to at least have a potential gripe of going to one of the higher end bowl games that the Big XII is affiliated with. RB Daniel Thomas should get to the 1,000 yard barrier on his first carry of the game, as he has 996 yards and ten TDs this season. Thomas will certainly be honored by the Wildcat faithful on Saturday night, as he was a no name on defense before converting over to become arguably the best running back that the Wildcats have had since RB Darren Sproles graduated. QB Carson Coffman still has plenty of home games left in his days in Manhattan, but he is going to want to leave the hometown crowd with a great taste in its mouth. Coffman has just 1,315 yards through the air with eight TDs and six picks on the season.

We’re puzzled as to why the oddsmakers continue showing faith in the Longhorns. They’re just not that good. If this exact same team had the name “Baylor” on the front of its jerseys, the Wildcats would be favored by somewhere between six and eight points. That’s exactly the margin of victory that we’re banking on seeing the hosts win by in their swan song for this season.

College Football Expert Pick: Kansas State Wildcats +3.5

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