NCAA Football Free Betting Pick – No. 17 TCU vs. Texas 9/22/2018

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Saturday, 09/22/2018 at 04:30 pm TCU (2-2) at TEXAS (3-1)
Expanded Matchup Game Center Bet Now Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics
379TCU 48 35.3 22.5 2-2 1-2-1 1-2-0 206.5 237.3 443.8 127.3 202.8 330.1
380TEXAS +3 31.3 21.3 3-1 2-2-0 2-2-0 163.8 247.3 411.1 117 245.3 362.3

Last Updated: 2018-09-18

The Longhorns of Texas (+3.5) are ready to welcome the No. 17 Tcu Horned Frogs (-3.5) to Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium/Jamail Field. Fans can catch the action live on FOX and the opening kickoff for this conference showdown is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET.

No. 17 TCU at Texas Betting Odds

This Big 12 game’s line is placed at 3.5 points in favor of TCU. The Horned Frogs are currently getting -175 moneyline odds while the Longhorns are +155. The over/under has been set at 51 points, and if one team can find paydirt early on, it will likely generate a nice live betting opportunity.

The line originally opened at 2.5 and the game’s total was initially 52.5, so square bettors are siding with both the Horned Frogs and the under.

The Horned Frogs are 2-1 straight up (SU) and they haven’t faced any Big 12 competition yet. The Longhorns are 2-1 SU overall and are also 0-0 SU in conference play. The Horned Frogs are 1-1-1 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 1.0 unit so far. The team has posted an Over-Under record of 1-1.

The disappointing Longhorns have lost 4.0 units this season. The team is 1-2 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-1.

These two teams faced off last year with the final outcome being a 24-7 win for TCU.

The Horned Frogs fell to Ohio State 40-28 in a game where the passing game the big culprit as Shawn Robinson completed 24 passes for 308 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Sewo Olonilua (just 39 yards on 14 rush attempts, one TD) and Darius Anderson (154 yards on 12 carries, two TDs) spearheaded the ground attack while Jalen Reagor (seven receptions, 98 yards) and KaVontae Turpin (four catches, 14 yards) manned the receiving duties in the defeat.

Texas just earned a 37-14 win over USC. Sam Ehlinger completed 15-of-33 passes for 223 yards and two touchdowns. Tre Watson (72 yards on 18 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Ehlinger (35 yards on 17 carries, one TD) led the running game as Collin Johnson (six receptions, 79 yards) and Lil’Jordan Humphrey (four catches, 84 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the win.

TCU has run the ball on 54.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Texas has an overall rush percentage of 56.7 percent. The Horned Frogs have produced 226 rush yards per game and have eight touchdowns on the ground this year. The Longhorns are totaling 181 rush yards per contest and have five total rushing TDs.

The Horned Frogs have averaged 242 yards through the air overall and have six passing TDs so far. The Longhorns have put up 245 pass yards per game and also have six total pass scores.

Defensively, TCU appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 132 rush yards and 185 pass yards per game. Texas has allowed 109.0 rushing yards per game and 250.0 to opponents in the air. The Horned Frogs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.73 to opposing QBs, while the Longhorns have given up a 5.71 ANY/A.

Robinson has put up 490 passing yards this year. He’s completed 41-of-64 attempts with four passing touchdowns and two interceptions. Robinson has a 6.82 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 4.78 over the last two games.

The Horned Frogs will probably try to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Along with Jalen Reagor (143 yards, one TD), Darius Anderson (190 rush yards, two rush TDs) and Sewo Olonilua (82 rush yards, one rush TD) have delivered in the offense for TCU.

Sam Ehlinger has accounted for 486 yards, four TDs and two INTs for Texas. His ANY/A stands at 6.03 for the year and 8.39 over his last two outings.

The Longhorns also prefer to rely on their backfield. In addition to Lil’Jordan Humphrey (166 receiving yards, one receiving TD), Tre Watson (124 rush yards) and Collin Johnson (zero rush yards, 138 receiving yards, one TD) have seen plenty of touches recently.

TCU Horned Frogs at Texas Longhorns Free Prediction

SU Winner – TCU, ATS Winner – TCU, O/U – Over


Betting Trends

The TCU defense has twice as many sacks as Texas this year (eight versus four).

Texas has lost three fumbles this season while TCU has lost two.

The Horned Frogs offense has registered four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Longhorns have accounted for two such plays.

The TCU defense has allowed four pass plays of 40+ yards, while Texas has given up five such plays.

The TCU offense has created three rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Texas has created two such runs.

The Horned Frogs defense has allowed one rushing play of 20 or more yards, while the Longhorns have given up four such runs.

Texas was favored by 3 points in its last outing and the O/U going into it was 47.5. The over cashed and Texas covered in the 37-14 victory over USC.

In its last three contests, Texas is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

TCU was the underdog by 12 points in its last game and the Over/Under was set at 60. The over cashed and the spread pushed in the 40-28 loss to Ohio State.

As a team, TCU has averaged 5.7 yards per carry over its last two games.

Texas has averaged 4.2 yards per carry over its last two.

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