NCAA Football Best Bets- Week 6
- Updated: October 5, 2011
As college football enters the midway point of the regular season, the schedule is filled with a number of intriguing conference matchups. The trick is to uncover the ones that slipped through the odds makers cracks to take advantage of what sometimes is referred to as a ‘bad line’.
Last week we cashed in on two of these mistakes with Auburn winning outright as a 10.5-point road underdog and Stanford covering as a 20.5-point home favorite. We went back to work on this week’s games and are ready to ‘Bang the Book’ once again with three best bets.
Miami Hurricanes vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (-7)
Miami’s off-field troubles have inevitably spilled onto the field with a 2-2 straight-up start (1-3 against the spread) that includes a 28-24 loss two weeks ago to Kansas State as a 12.5-point home favorite. The Hurricanes are ranked 88th in the country in passing with less than 200 yards a game and 62nd in scoring with an average of 29.3 points a game.
Virginia Tech took the easy way out with four very winnable non-conference games to start the year, but ran into a Clemson buzz saw last week in 23-3 loss as a seven-point home favorite in its ACC opener. The Hokies are 4-1 SU, but just 1-4 ATS. This loss should provide the necessary wake-up call for this team to start playing to its potential.
The Hurricanes are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games against the Hokies and 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Blacksburg. They lost 31-7 in their last trip there as 2.5-point road favorites.
The Pick: Virginia Tech 24 Miami 13
Texas A&M Aggies (-8) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas A&M is coming off a tough two weeks after a 30-29 loss to Oklahoma State as a 4.5-point home favorite followed by a 42-38 loss to Arkansas as a 2.5-point road favorite. The Aggies are still ranked 24th in the country at 2-2 SU (1-3 ATS).
Texas Tech is off to a perfect 4-0 SU start (3-1 ATS) including a 45-34 victory last week over Kansas as a 6.5-point road favorite. The Red Raiders are ranked ninth in the nation in passing with an average of 345.5 yards a game and fourth in scoring with an average of 47.3 points a game.
The Aggies are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games against Texas Tech overall and 1-7 ATS in their last eight trips to Lubbock. The home team in this Texas-sized rivalry is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
The Pick: Texas A&M 34 Texas Tech 31
Kentucky Wildcats vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (-21)
Kentucky is 2-3 both SU and ATS on the year and 0-2 in the SEC after a 35-7 loss to LSU in a game it covered as a 29.5-point road underdog. This is the Wildcats third straight game against a ranked opponent so they are battle-tested for this matchup.
South Carolina (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) is coming off an ugly 16-13 loss to Auburn as a 10.5-point home favorite. The offense played so bad that Steve Spurrier has decided to bench quarterback Stephen Garcia in favor of Conner Shaw, who has thrown a total of 11 passes all season long. Expect a heavy dose of running back Marcus Lattimore, which could help to keep the scoring down.
The Wildcats stunned South Carolina last season 31-28 as 5.5-point home favorites and covered the year before as nine-point road favorites in a 28-26 loss. In the last five years of this series the largest margin of victory has been 15 points.
The Pick: South Carolina 28 Kentucky 10
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