NCAA Football Best Bets – Week 14
- Updated: November 30, 2011
We have come to the end of the college football regular season, but before we turn our attention to the upcoming bowl season, there is one more week of games on the slate. While the odds makers have sharpened the lines to a fine edge by now, there is always value to be found in a few select matchups that provide an opportunity the ‘bang the book’ with a high-unit play.
Last week we cashed-in on Georgia in a 31-17 romp over Georgia Tech as a 6.5-point favorite, but missed the boat on Virginia and Florida. We went back to the drawing board to handicap this week’s contests, and are confident to release our final three ‘free picks’ until the bowl season gets underway.
Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 11 Kansas State Wildcats (-10.5)
Iowa State’s claim to fame this season was its thrilling 37-31 double-overtime victory over Oklahoma State as a 26.5-point home underdog, which all but ended the Cowboys national title hopes. Overall, the Cyclones are 6-5 both straight-up and against the spread.
Kansas State has been a very profitable team this season with a 9-2 record both SU and ATS. What makes this record even more impressive is the fact that the Wildcats were underdogs in eight of the 11 games. They are coming off a huge 17-13 win over Texas on Nov. 19 as 7.5-point road underdogs.
The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games, but just 2-5 ATS in their last seven trips to Kansas State. The Wildcats are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games in the Big 12.
The Free Pick: Kansas State 28 Iowa State 10
No. 22 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 17 Baylor Bears (-2.5)
Texas bounced back from a stunning loss the Kansas State with a hard-fought 27-25 win over Texas A&M on Thanksgiving night as a 7.5-point road underdog. The Longhorns will look to complete the state-sweep behind a rushing attack that is averaging 211.3 yards a game.
Baylor received some good news this week as it appears that quarterback Robert Griffin III will be ready to go for Saturday’s game after getting hit in head in the Bears 66-42 romp over Texas Tech as 12-point home favorites last Saturday.
The road team in this series is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings and Texas is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Baylor. The Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a winning record.
The Free Pick: Texas 38 Baylor 35
No. 5 Virginia Tech Hokies (-7) vs. No. 20 Clemson Tigers
The 11-1 Hokies only blemish this season was a 23-3 loss to Clemson on Oct.1 as seven-point home favorites. They struggled to move the ball against the Tigers the first time around, but look for a much better effort from an offense that is averaging close to 200 yards a game on the ground.
In order for Clemson to pull-off the sweep, it will need a strong performance from quarterback Tajh, who has thrown for 3,338 yards and 28 touchdowns and running back Andre Ellington, who has 937 yards rushing and nine TD’s.
Virginia Tech is 3-8 ATS in its 11 games this season and 0-4 ATS in its last four games following an ATS win. Clemson is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 conference games. The Hokies are 5-1 both SU and ATS in the last six meetings between the two.
The Free Pick: Virginia Tech 24 Clemson 21
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