Last Updated: 2019-02-15
A small slate of college basketball, as is usually the case for Friday, and most of the games are fairly close to the numbers, so no official plays tonight, with just two having a 5-point difference. Will go ahead and list all the numbers for tonight.
Yale at Columbia: The first half total in this one is 68 and I have it at 73, so a five-point difference here, but we need at least seven points for an over play. Yale has been pretty much what you expect on the road, scoring a few points less and allowing a few points more, while the Lions score 1.4 more points in the first half at home and allow 2.7 points less at home. This is the first meeting of the year between the two teams. Columbia’s defense hasn’t been that good the last few games, while Yale has been playing pretty good defense, allowing a high of 71 points over its last seven games and are on a 1-5 totals run.
Manhattan at Niagra: The first-half total in this one is 61 and I have it at 56, so an under lean in this one. Manhattan is a terrible offensive team, averaging just 25.2 points in the first half and 23.5 when they’re on the road, although the Jaspers can play a little defense and allow under 30 points per game, both overall and on the road. Niagra is more of an uptempo team, although they’re not really a very good shooting team, as they average less than 42% from the field and have to think the Jaspers will try to slow things down a little bit in this one. Niagra averages 34.1 points in the first half and allows 34.9, but the question is if Manhattan can take advantage of Niagra’s defensive woes. The Jaspers had their best offensive game of the season when these two teams met last month, with Manhattan scoring 90 points on 63.6% shooting and nearly 60% from 3-point range.
28 St. Joes
30 South Alabama
42 Georgia State
37 Troy State
40 Georgia Southern
33 Northern Kentucky
33 Wright State
31 St. Peters
END OF FEB. 15 PICKS
Tough beat with our Creighton total on Wednesday, as we couldn’t get a basket in the final 2:50 of the first half and lost by two after we looked pretty good the entire way, which is how first half betting goes at times.
Two totals plays for Thursday and in a bit of a surprise, both are overs and both are also added games.
VMI at Wofford: The first half total in this one is sitting at 72 and I have it at 79, so a seven-point difference and an over play here. The teams met last month and Wofford came away with a 90-76 road victory, in a non-covering effort, as they were favored by 16. The game easily went over the total of 146 and it was pretty tight at halftime, as Wofford just led 40-38 in a game that saw both teams shoot well. VMI’s scoring takes a hit on the road, as they average 36 first-half points overall, but just 31 on the road, but they make up for it on the defensive end, where they allow 43.7 points compared to 38.2 overall. Wofford averages 2.1 more first-half points at home and allows .5 fewer points, so these teams combine to average 2 more points in the first half in today’s location.
Eastern Kentucky at Morehead State: The first half total in this one is 77 and I have it at 85, so an eight point difference and an over play here. This is the first meeting of the season between these two teams this year and Eastern Kentucky is averaging 36.4 points on the road against teams who allow 35.9 and allowing 44 points on the road to teams to score 35.4 points. Morehead averages 38.6 points in the first half and is allowing 37.3 at home, which is slightly higher than their overall average.
Belmont at Tennessee State: The first half total on this one is 74 and I have it at 82, but moved it to the other games section due to Tennessee State’s home vs. away scoring, as they score 3.3 more points and allow 5.1 fewer, while Belmont sees .7 fewer points in their road games. This one will come down to which team controls the pace early on, as Belmont will look to push the tempo and Tennessee State plays a more deliberate game. Belmont won 92-74 last month at home, shooting better than 63% for the game and also went 13 for 21 in 3-point shooting. Despite that effort, the game was just 43-31 at halftime.
END OF FEB. 14 PICKS
College first half totals have been posted at several shops, so we’ll take a look at couple of games here.
Creighton at Xavier: The first half total on this one came out at 68.5 and I have it at 77, so enough of a gap to have an over play in this one. The teams met 10 days ago and the total there was 153 for the full game and now it’s down to 146 after opening 148. Creighton won that one 76-54, which has had a bit of an impact on the total here. Both teams were under their average field goal attempts in the first game, which is a result of 32 turnovers by the two teams. Creighton was solid from the field, while Xavier left a little to be desired. On the road this season, Creighton is scoring 36.5 points in the first half and allowing 37.4. Creighton’s foes have allowed an average of 33.9 points, so they’re a few points better than average offensively, while their foes are averaging 35.7 points, so they’re 1.5 points below average on defense. Xavier scores 3.1 more first half points at home than foes allow, while getting a +1.9 on defense, allowing 34 points to teams who average 35.9.
Clemson at Miami: The first half total in this one is 61, while I have at 66, so it falls short of our seven-point difference for overs. Clemson scores 33.2 points in the first half, while having played foes who allow 31.9, so the Tigers are slightly better than average on offense, while allowing 33 points on the road to teams who average 35.6. The Hurricanes score 35.8 points at home in the first half, while their foes allow 32.6, while allowing 31.4 points at home to teams who average 35.7 points.
Minnesota at Nebraska: The first half total on this one is 64.5 and I have it at 62, so it does fall a little bit short of being a play, but included it here, as I lean to the under, as these teams have some pronounced home and away performances, as Minnesota scores 28.9 points on the road and allows 1.5 fewer points on the road, while the Huskers score .7 more points at home, while allowing 3.9 fewer points at home. If we based this one on solely home and away performances, I’d have this one in the mid 50s.
END OF FEB. 13 PICKS
On the road this morning, but wanted to get the college basketball articles out, so will post all of the numbers, as well as look at a couple of games, where we’ll estimate the lines.
Georgia at Texas A & M: The Aggies are favored by 5 with a full-game total of 148.5, so Texas A & M should be roughly 2.5 in the first half with a total of 70, while I have this one at 77, so a lean to the over in this one. Georgia is one of those teams who doesn’t show that much of a difference between first half and second half scoring, with the Bulldogs scoring 48.4% of their away points in the first half, while allowing 49.3% of their points in the first half.
The Aggies are scoring 50% of their points in the first half when they’re at home, while they allow 48.1% of their points in the first half.
Buffalo at Akron: Two distinct styles in this game, as Buffalo scores 85 and allows 71 points per game and Akron scores 70 and allows 62. For the game, Buffalo is favored by 8 with a total of 144.5, so Buffalo will likely be around -4 for the first half, with a total of 67 to 68 points. I have this one at 63 points, but somewhat of a tough game to play, as Buffalo could force Akron out of their comfort zone if they get out to a first-half lead.
30 St. Bonnies
29 St Joes
34 Boston College
40 Texas A & M
36 Central Michigan
37 Bowling Green
32 Eastern Michigan
33 Northern Illinois
33 Western Michigan
32 Michigan St
28 Southern Illinois
36 St. Johns
29 Penn State
37 Mississippi State
26 Kansas St
31 Air Force
36 San Diego St
37 Colorado St
END OF FEB. 12 PICKS
Small slate of games for Monday, although it’s definitely a quality schedule, with three of the four games pretty decent ones, while the Portland State at Sacramento State matchup isn’t all that bad.
Virginia at North Carolina: This one is even with a first half total of 66 and the first-half wager, at least, is going to come down to which team is able to dictate the play. The Cavaliers are going to try and slow things down, while North Carolina is going to look to press the pace. I have this one at 70, so a four-point difference, but still three points of the seven-point difference we look for in overs. This one was 66.5 earlier this morning, so a little bit of action on the under here and one I’ll just stay clear of.
Oklahoma at Baylor: We’re seeing a 64.5 on this one in the first half at the places who do have it posted, with Baylor’s Makai Mason expected to be a game-time decision. Even if Mason goes, you have to wonder if he’ll be close to full strength. The Sooners lost by 30 at home earlier this season in a game where they couldn’t make anything, shooting 27% from the field for the game and they were even worse from 3-point range. I have this one at 61 and will go ahead and give the nod to the under here, thinking the Sooners will be out to make amends and will begin with the defensive side of things.
Kansas at TCU: The first-half total on this one is 70 and the last two games these two have played have seen 71 and 70 points, while I have this one at 67, as both teams tend to play a little better defensviely at tonight’s location. The Jayhawks are without Vick, who is one of the better 3-point shooters around, which may allow TCU to play more in the paint to slow down the big guy in the middle and his 70% shooting percentage. TCU hasn’t played very good defense the last four games, all of which have landed over the total.
Portland State at Sacramento State: Not a bad game here, where the first-half total is at 66 and I have it at 69. Neither team really shoots that well, but Sacramento State has shown a tendency to play a little defense at home, while the Vikings are allowing close to 49% shooting on the road.
END OF FEB. 11 PICKS
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