We have these in-state and conference rivals in Week 13 of the NCAAF, and the game will take place on Friday, November 25, so make sure you don’t miss out on the best Wolfpack vs. Tar Heels betting pick and odds.
NC State is looking to finish the season with a win after losing the last two when they visit North Carolina at Kenan Stadium. The Tar Heels are -6.5 favorites on BookMaker Sportsbook, while the total is set at 56 points. These ACC foes have faced once in 2021, and the Wolfpack won 34-30 at home.
Wolfpack’s useless offense cost them against Louisville
The NC State Wolfpack (7-4-0, 3-8-0 ATS) suffered consecutive losses for the first time this season. Following a tight and unlucky home loss to Boston College, the Wolfpack lost 25-10 to the Louisville Cardinals on the road. Despite having 20 first downs opposite Louisville’s 16 and almost 300 total yards, NC State scored just one touchdown in what turned out to be the Wolfpack’s second-worst offensive display of the season.
Ben Finley completed 16 of 35 passes for 201 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Michael Allen was on the receiving end of that aforementioned touchdown, while Darryl Jones led the Wolfpack in receiving yards with 60 on four catches. NC State’s run offense didn’t work; they collected only 77 rushing yards on 31 carries. Defensively, Isaiah Moore and Tanner Ingle led the team with eight tackles apiece.
QB Devin Leary (pectoral) is out for the season. WR Devin Carter (undisclosed), RB Demie Sumo-Karngbaye (undisclosed), and QB MJ Morris (undisclosed) are questionable to face the Tar Heels on Friday.
Tar Heels dropped a huge lead in a loss to Georgia Tech
The North Carolina Tar Heels (9-2-0, 6-5-0 ATS) once again showed a weak display in the second half, but this time around, it cost them a win. After scoring nine points in the second half against Wake Forest but managing to win by two points, the Tar Heels were kept off the scoreboard in the second 30 minutes against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at home and suffered a 21-17 loss despite having a 17-0 lead.
Drake Maye completed 16 of 30 passes for 202 yards and an interception. It was the worst performance of the campaign from a freshman quarterback, who threw for his first interception since Week 6 and fourth overall this year. It was also Maye’s first game of the season in which he failed to register a passing touchdown. Bryson Nesbit led all the receivers with 85 yards on four catches, while Elijah Green was excellent on the ground with 92 yards and two rushing touchdowns on ten attempts. On defense, North Carolina had zero sacks opposite Georgia Tech’s six, but Cedric Gray did dominate in tackles with a game-high 14.
TE John Copenhaver (upper body), WR Antoine Green (upper body), and RB Caleb Hood (undisclosed) are questionable to feature against NC State on Friday.
- 1-7 ATS in the last eight games overall
- 7-19 ATS in the last 26 road games
- 2-6 ATS in the last eight games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game
- 20-8 ATS in the last 28 games following an ATS loss
- 26-9 ATS in the last 35 home games vs. a team with a winning road record
NC State Wolfpack vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Pick
I am well aware that North Carolina already secured second place and the ACC Championship game against Clemson, but the Tar Heels will not take this game lightly. It is an in-state rivalry game after all, and although I think they will take the foot off the gas pedal in the second half, which was the case in the last two games, I am still backing the Tar Heels in this derby. Drake Maye must be disappointed with that last week’s display, and he will be eager to return to his best against arch-rivals. NC State does have a top-20 defense, but it will face a top-20 offense and the sixth-best when it comes to passing.
Pick: Take the Tar Heels at -5.5 (-130)
The Tar Heels scored a season-low 17 points in the last week’s loss to Georgia Tech and that is going to definitely change on Friday. I am backing the hosts to score 30+ points, as they did in each of the previous three H2H meetings. NC State’s offense is worrying me as I don’t think they are capable of producing enough points for an Over bet. However, North Carolina will relax in the second half, which is a chance for the Wolfpack to score as many points as possible. Over is 20-8 in the Tar Heels’ last 28 vs. a team with a winning record, while Over is 7-1 in the Wolfpack’s previous eight games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Pick: Go Over 54.5 points (-133)