NBA Wagering Angles Dec 30-Jan 6
- Updated: December 30, 2014
During the NBA season an observant basketball handicapper can find many wagering angles, but they will have to do their due diligence to make sure that they get a wagering angle that is usable throughout the entire season and has some tangible information attached to it. When looking for a wagering angle, it is easy to find one that may have produced a winning record, but it is not always easy to find one that is backed with solid information.
For the second article in this series I took a look at teams that are playing a divisional game. The NBA season is very long but almost all of the division games are important. The divisional game is important because a team cannot afford to lose early and often in the division or they will have an upward climb in the standings as they fight for playoff seeding throughout the season. All numbers are pulled from the last two years.
When a team is on the road before a divisional game they are 210-279 straight up. This could be a strong indication that they are looking forward to the divisional game, but this is still vague so I wanted to dig a bit deeper. When that team is an underdog in that situation they are just 101-228 straight up. This shows that this could be a vulnerable spot for teams, but we are looking for solid numbers against the spread.
The spot to look at is when a team is at home after a division game. The theory would be that the team is in letdown mode after a big divisional game and the numbers back it up as that team is just 342-372-10 against the spread. If they won that divisional game they are just 163-173 against the spread, proving there may be some letdown after a big game in division. It gets even worse when they are playing against a team that is out of conference.
When a team is off a win against a divisional opponent at home and they are playing a non-conference opponent they are just 52-67 against the number at the betting window. This goes to prove that the letdown after a divisional game victory is real.
In the last four years certain teams have struggled more than others in this position. The Memphis Grizzlies are 2-4 ATS in the last six games in this scenario and the LA Lakers are 2-6 against the spread in the last eight games fitting this criterion. When viewing the league for vital wagering angles make sure you get ones that provide a winning record and are backed by solid reasoning.
A team in letdown mode after a divisional win fits that bill.