NBA Totals Plays 11/6/17

Last Updated: 2017-11-06

It’s time to begin our daily NBA totals play, as we have a few games in the books to draw upon. Our first day sees just three games on the schedule, so we can take a look at the updated NBA Power Ratings, which will be the main ingredient of our plays until we have a bit more of a sample size and then can also incorporate the various statistical systems we used last year.

Eastern Conference Ratings
Home Away
Atlanta 105-1 101-1
Charlotte 108 – (-2) 100 – (-5)
Miami 106-2 100 – (-5)
Orlando 102 – (-1) 105-3
Washington 110-5 107 – (-3)

Chicago 100 – (-6) 101 – (-5)
Cleveland 109 – 4 110-3
Detroit 103 – (-5) 102 – (-3)
Indiana 108 – (-2) 107-3
Milwaukee 103 – (-2) 104 – (-1)

Boston 109 – (-1) 106 – (-7)
Brooklyn 107 – 8 108-11
New York 105 -1 101-0
Philadelphia 105-2 105-1
Toronto 111 – (-2) 105 – (-5)

Western Conference Ratings
Dallas 101 – (-1) 96-2
Houston 114-6 113-0
Memphis 100 – (-9) 103 – (-5)
New Orleans 106-1 102 – (-1)
San Antonio 105 – (-6) 101 – (-7)

Golden St. 118-4 119-0
LA Clippers 108 – (-2) 107 – (-2)
LA Lakers 106-3 103-8
Phoenix 110-9 107-8
Sacramento 102 -3 97-0

Denver 113-4 109-5
Minnesota 107-2 108-4
Ok City 108-2 103 – (-1)
Portland 108-2 107-1
Utah 100 – (-8) 98 – (-7)

As a quick guideline, we’ll use a two-point maximum adjustment for the remainder of November and from December onward, keep the adjustments to a one-point maximum.

Boston at Atlanta: The line on this one is now Celtics -8 and the total is 205, after opening Boston -8.5 and 206. Our numbers make this one Boston 107-98, so too close for comfort, as our projection falls right on the total.

Brooklyn at Phoenix: As the saying goes, ‘there’s no D in Brooklyn or Phoenix’ and this one figures to see plenty of scoring, as the line is Phoenix -1 with a total of 235. Our numbers have Phoenix winning 121-117, but as I mentioned on the Suns’ totals preview, I’m not entirely sure the team’s high-flying ways will continue after the coaching change. Yes, these teams played a 122-114 recently, but the Suns were 10 for 22 in 3-point shooting and 22 for 24 at the foul line, both of which will be tough to duplicate. This is only the third time in the last 20 years that a team is returning home after playing the last five games on the road and having a total of 230 or greater. As a general rule, teams returning home after at least a five-game road trip have had a slight under tendency (47.6% overs) so will definitely be staying away from the over.

Miami at Golden State: The Warriors are favored by 16.5 with a total of 226.5 and the numbers have Golden State winning 113-104, so will tab the under as our first play of the new season. The Warriors haven’t been as tough at home defensively as they were last year, but the Heat having been bringing some decent defense away from home in the early going of the 2017-18 season.

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