Last Updated: 2018-01-01
We limped through the month of December and finished 2017 with a 30-20 record with our NBA totals after a hot start. That 60% figure is probably about as good as it gets with a relatively simple concept. We’re faced with a relatively small schedule today with just four games, all of which will take place tonight.
December was a slightly lower-scoring month than November in the NBA, as the average game was 210 pointscompared to 211.2 the previous month, although the results were similar, as November saw 48.3% of the games go over the total and December saw 48.2% land over the number. For the season, 47.5% of the games are going over the number, so flat-bet under bettors have shown a small profit.
Games with a total of at least 215 have still been profitable and have gone 95-73-5 (56.5%) and these games were 35-23-2, which is a little bit over 60%.
Orlando at Brooklyn: The Nets are favored by 2.5 points and the total has been bet up to 219, while I have this one 114-111 in favor of Brooklyn. The total opened at 217 and has moved two full points despite 55% of the bets coming in on the over. Typically such a percentage would only lead to a 1-point increase in the number. The Nets are on a 1-7 run at home and lost to Boston 108-105 on Sunday. Brooklyn has gone 3-4 with no rest. The Magic are 9-14-1 after a loss, so our numbers, betting patterns and trends are in disagreement.
Milwaukee at Toronto: The Raptors are favored by 6 and the total is 215.5, while I made this one 111-103 for the home team. The Raptors are 0-4 in their last four home games, while the Bucks are on a 13-3-1 overall run, although their last two games have landed under the total.
LA Lakers at Minnesota: The Timberwolves are favored by 10.5 and the total has dropped from 218 to 214, with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope missing this one for the Lakers. I have this one much closer at 105-105, although the Lakers are on a 9-1 overall run.
Portland at Chicago: The Blazers are now favored by 1 and the total has dropped to 206 in a slight reverse line move, having opened at 207.5 and seeing the majority of wagers on the over. I have this one 99-98 in favor of the Bulls and we overall conflicting trends with the Blazers on an under run and the Bulls on an over push. The Blazers are 6-9-1 after a loss and the Bulls are 10-12 after a defeat. Will tab the under here as tonight’s play.
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