Final 2018-19 NBA Power Ratings

Date | AuthorAllen Moody

Last Updated: 2019-04-11

These are the final ratings for the 2018-19 regular NBA season and the numbers that I’ll use going into the playoffs. We’ll look at playoff scoring in a separate article that will be up the day before the playoffs begin.

I did use a little bit judgement down the stretch, such as not penalizing teams who obviously had no interest in winning or losing and were resting players and not taking chances, so if you’re keeping the updates yourselves, you may have slightly different numbers than I do.

The Bucks have the best home rating of any team in the NBA, while Toronto, Golden State and Houston are tied for the best road rating, with Milwaukee a point behind.

The first number is a team’s offensive number and the second is the team’s defensive number. To get a predicted score add the home team’s home offense to the away team’s defensive number for the home team’s predicted points. For the away team, simply take their offensive rating and add the home team’s defense.

If Philadelphia is at Toronto, take the Raptors’ home offensive number of 117 and add Philadelphia’s away defensive rating of 0  to get 117. For Philadelphia, take their road offensive number of 111 and add Toronto’s defensive number of 0 to get 111. Therefore, our prediction is Toronto 117-111.

If Toronto is at Philadelphia, we would have the 76ers’ 115 added to Toronto’s (-3) for 112 points. The Raptors would have their 115 added to 1 for 116, therefore our prediction is Toronto 116-112.

Atlantic Division Home Power Rating Away Power Rating
Toronto Raptors 117 – 0 115 – (-3)
Philadelphia 76ers 115 -1 111 – 0
Boston Celtics 113 – 0 109 – (-1)
Brooklyn Nets 113 – 3 112 – 1
New York Knicks 104 – 5 100 – 3
Central Division Home Power Rating Away Power Rating
Milwaukee Bucks 120 – (-1) 117 – 0
Indiana Pacers 108 – (-7) 106 – (-7)
Detroit Pistons 110 – (-5) 105 – (-3)
Chicago Bulls 105 -4 106 – 3
Cleveland Cavaliers 105 -2 106 -8
Southeastern Division Home Power Rating Away Power Rating
Charlotte Hornets 112 – 1 107 -2
Orlando Magic 112 – (-5) 104 – (-2)
Washington Wizards 114 – 7 111 – 8
Miami Heat 104 – (-2) 105 – (-6)
Atlanta Hawks 114 – 9 112 – 8
Northwest Division Home Power Rating Away Power Rating
Denver Nuggets 114 – (-5) 107 – (-3)
Oklahoma City Thunder 114 – 1 113 – 1
Portland Trail Blazers 119 – 1 113 – (-2)
Minnesota Timberwolves 116 -3 111 – 6
Utah Jazz 112 – (-5) 111 – (-4)
Pacific Division Home Power Rating Away Power Rating
Golden State Warriors 119 – 2 116 – (-2)
Los Angeles Clippers 118 – 6 112 – 1
Los Angeles Lakers 111 -1 110 – 1
Sacramento Kings 114 – 3 114 – 4
Phoenix Suns 109 – 5 107 -7
Southwest Division Home Power Rating Away Power Rating
Memphis Grizzlies 104 – (-5) 102 – (-2)
Dallas Mavericks 109 – (-1) 108 – 0
New Orleans Pelicans 115 -10 115 – 9
San Antonio Spurs 112 – (-3) 109 – 0
Houston Rockets 115 – (-1) 112 – (-6)

 

Updating Ratings

Updating the power ratings doesn’t take too long, but should be done every day. If a team scores within seven points of their projection, there is no change to the number. If a team scores eight or more points away from their predicted number, I’ll make a change of one point for the team’s offense, as well as the opposing defense.

Using our prediction of Toronto 119-109 in Toronto, if the Raptors score 127 or more points, their home offensive number would be raised a point, while Philadelphia’s away defensive number would also be raised a point. If the Raptors scored 111 or fewer points, there would be a one-point reduction in their offensive number, while the 76ers would see a one-point decrease in their away defensive number. Remember, if you raise one team’s offense, you will raise the opposition’s defense, while if you lower one team’s offense, you will also lower the opposition’s defense.

While this isn’t the only factor that goes into making selections, it is quick way to get a predicted line on each game on the schedule.

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