NBA Betting Trends & a Monday Night Free Pick

Last Updated: 2017-01-16

Now that the football season is almost at an end, more bettors will start to turn their attention to other sports, such as basketball or the NHL, knowing that there are just three football games remaining this season. For the majority of people, that means the NBA since they know it better than the NHL and there aren’t nearly the same number of teams on a daily basis as you’ll find in college basketball.

Those who are jumping into the NBA for the first time this season, as well as those who have been betting it from opening tip-off, should take a bit of a look at what has transpired so far this season from a betting standpoint, as there are several noticeable trends that have developed so far this season, the majority of which deal with totals.

Through Sunday’s games, home teams have gone 309-289-13 against the spread, which shows a slight flat-bet loss if you were to blindly wager on each home team. Home favorites have gone 207-176-10 (54%), while home underdogs are just 97-107-3, although home underdogs of 4 or more points are a break-even 55-50-3, while home underdogs of 7 or more points have shown a small profit, going 23-18-2 (56.1%).

Totals have gone 311-287-13, which is 52% over, close to the break-even point of 52.38%, but still a slight flat-bet loss if you were betting the over each game. But where totals stand out a bit this season is that the games with lower totals have shown a tendency to go under, while games with higher totals have gone over far more often than not.

Games with a total of less than 210, meaning 209.5 or lower, have gone 154-181-4 (45.3%) so far this season, while games with a total of 210 and higher have gone 157-101-9 (60.9%). Games with a total of 215 and higher have posted an 89-54-6 (62.2%) record, while games with a total of 220 and higher are 39-24-2 (61.9%).

Generally, teams playing without rest have had a decent tendency to play over, as it’s usually defense that players sacrifice when they’re tired, most often on the road. Home teams playing without rest and a total of 210 or higher have gone 17-11 (60.7%) to the over, while visiting teams have gone 34-19-3 (64.3%) to the over.

There has been one other trend that has stood out this season and that involves games where both teams have had at least two days in between games. In games where totals are 210 and higher and both teams have had at least two days rest, totals have gone 13-3, which is something to look at when the Cleveland Cavaliers visit the Golden State Warriors tonight, as the total is currently 224.5, so the trend would call for an over play.

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