Navy vs. SMU: 9/22/2018 Betting Pick

 
Saturday, 09/22/2018 at 12:00 pm NAVY (2-2) at SMU (1-3)
Expanded Matchup Game Center Bet Now Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics
Teams Line PF PA SU ATS O/U/P RY PY TY RY PY TY
373NAVY 59 36 33 2-2 1-3-0 2-1-0 355.8 76.8 432.6 159.8 230.3 390.1
374SMU +6 21.5 40.8 1-3 2-2-0 2-2-0 100.8 184.5 285.3 215.3 217.3 432.6

Last Updated: 2018-09-18

The Navy Midshipmen (-6.5) and Smu Mustangs will go toe-to-toe on the turf of Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Kickoff for this showdown is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to the action on ESNN.

Navy vs. SMU Betting Odds

This AAC game’s spread is placed at 6.5 points in favor of Navy. The Midshipmen are currently getting -270 moneyline odds while the Mustangs are +210. The over/under has been set at 67 points. If one team gets out in front early, it’ll likely result in a worthy betting opportunity in-game.

The Midshipmen are 2-1 straight up (SU), including 1-0 SU against conference opponents. The Mustangs are 0-3 SU overall and 0-0 SU in conference play. The Midshipmen are down 3.9 units so far and 1-2 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 1-1.

The Mustangs have lost 1.0 unit this season. They’re 1-2 ATS and have an O/U record of 1-2.

The Midshipmen are coming off a resounding 51-21 win over Lehigh last week. The passing game could’ve been better as the Midshipmen completed 6-of-14 passes for 145 yards and one interception. Malcolm Perry went two-for-9 for 65 yards and one interception while Garret Lewis completed four-of-five for 80 yards. Perry (223 yards on 19 rush attempts, three TDs) also led the running attack. CJ Williams (three receptions, 104 yards) and Ryan Mitchell (one catch, 24 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.

SMU most-recently fell 45-20 to Michigan. As a group, the Mustangs collectively completed 19-of-34 passes for 209 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. William Brown went 11-for-17 for 82 yards and two touchdowns while Ben Hicks was seven-of-16 for 113 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Xavier Jones (50 rushing yards on 13 attempts) spearheaded the running attack while James Proche (11 receptions, 166 yards, two TDs) and Braeden West (three catches, six yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Navy’s run the ball on 84.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while SMU has an overall rush percentage of 46.1 percent. The Midshipmen have run for 358 yards/game and have 14 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Mustangs are totaling 82 rushing yards per contest and have two total rush TDs.

If the results so far this season can translate to this game, then it’s looking like the Midshipmen ought to have an edge along both the offensive and defensive fronts. Their offensive line has yielded only 13 sacks while the D-line logged 16 sacks. The Mustangs, on the other hand, have allowed 23 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 31 times.

The Midshipmen have logged 94 yards/contest through the air overall and have only one passing TDs so far. The Mustangs have recorded 191 pass yards per outing and have five total pass scores.

Defensively, Navy should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 160 rush yards and 252 pass yards per game. SMU has allowed 168.0 rushing yards per game and 284.0 to opposing teams in the air. The Midshipmen are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.98 to opponents, while the Mustangs have given up a whopping 8.74 ANY/A.

Garret Lewis has put up 146 pass yards on the year, and has completed 9-of-14 attempts with zero passing touchdowns and has yet to throw an interception. Lewis has a pristine 10.43 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 13.29 over the past two outings.

Malcolm Perry (331 rushing yards, four rush TDs, 0 receiving yards on the year), CJ Williams (49 rush yards, 132 receiving yards) and Garret Lewis (52 rush yards, one rush TD, 0 receiving yards) have each played key roles lately.

In the other huddle, Ben Hicks has produced 365 yards, three TDs and two INTs. Hicks’ ANY/A sits at 6.26 for the season and 2.77 over his past two outings.

We expect the Mustangs to dictate the game’s clock by feeding their running backs early and often. In addition to James Proche (243 receiving yards, three receiving TDs this season), Braeden West (51 rush yards, one rush TD, one receiving TD) and Xavier Jones (53 rush yards) have delivered significant production to the SMU offense.

These two schools met a year ago with the final outcome being a 43-40 win for Navy.

Navy Midshipmen vs. SMU Mustangs Betting Prediction

SU Winner – SMU, ATS Winner – SMU, O/U – Over

Notes

Team Betting Trends

The Navy D has sacked opposing quarterbacks five times this year. SMU has registered three sacks.

SMU has lost one fumble in 2018 while Navy has let two get away.

The Midshipmen offense has recorded one pass play of 40 or more yards, while the Mustangs have put up three such plays.

The Navy defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 yards or more, while SMU has given up three such plays.

The Navy offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while SMU has created two such run.

The Midshipmen defense has allowed seven rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Mustangs have given up one such run.

SMU was favored by 37 points in its last match and the O/U was set at 55. The over cashed and SMU failed to cover in the team’s 45-20 defeat to Michigan.

Over its last three contests, SMU is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

Navy was favored by 33 points in its last game. The team failed to cover the spread in the 51-21 win over Lehigh.

Navy has averaged 5.5 yards per carry over its last two outings.

SMU has averaged 3.8 yards per carry over its last two.

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