The Week 7 of the NCAAF continues on Friday, October 14, when we have this American Conference duel, and you can get the best Midshipmen vs. Mustangs betting pick and odds.
SMU is desperate to avoid the fourth consecutive defeat when they welcome Navy at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. The Mustangs are -13.5 favorites on BetDSI Sportsbook, while the total is set at 57.5 points. These conference foes have met once in 2021, and the Mustangs won that game 31-24 in Annapolis, MD.
Midshipmen dismantled Tulsa at home
The Navy Midshipmen (2-3, 3-2 ATS) scored a season-high 53 points in a 53-21 home win over the Tulsa Golden Hurricane and bounced back from a narrow loss to Air Force. Navy had a 36-14 lead at halftime and then controlled the game for the remainder. The Midshipmen were better in total yards (490-309), first downs (24-14), and possession (40:26-19:34), while the hosts committed only one turnover opposite Tulsa’s four.
As usual, Navy didn’t use its pass offense much but managed to record a passing TD Kai Puailoa-Rojas’ only pass attempt in the game. Tai Lavatai got that TD pass, but the Midshipmen were lethal on the ground with 455 yards and five touchdowns on 69 carries. Daba Fofana led the bunch with 159 yards and three touchdowns on 21 attempts. Defensively, Willie Collins V led the team with seven tackles.
Mustangs disappointed in another loss
The SMU Mustangs have suffered the third straight defeat as they scored season-low 19 points in a 41-19 road loss to the UCF Knights on the road. SMU actually equaled the number of total yards as the Knights (476-484) and more first downs (26-19) but committed two turnovers opposite UCF’s zero. The Knights scored 31 points in the second half, while the Mustangs scored only six in return.
Tanner Mordecai completed 28 of 45 passes for 295 yards and one interception. Rashee Rice was excellent in the air as he received 12 passes for 122 yards, but both of SMU’s touchdowns came on the ground. Velton Gardner led all the runners with 69 yards and a TD on 12 carries. On defense, Jimmy Phillips Jr. led all the defenders with game-high 11 tackles in total.
WR Jordan Kerley sat out the previous game with an unknown issue, and it is unclear if he will play on September 14 against Navy.
- 4-0 ATS in the last four games following an ATS win
- 10-1 ATS in the last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record
- 22-7 ATS in the last 29 conference games
- 1-5 ATS in the last six conference games
- 0-4 ATS in the last four games following an ATS loss
Navy Midshipmen vs. SMU Mustangs Pick
Tanner Mordecai leads the offense that averages 355.0 passing yards per game, which is the 4th best pass offense in the country. On the other hand, the Midshipmen are not using their pass offense often, only 110.0 ypg, but they do have a top-15 run offense that averages 231.8 ypg, so I expect them to run the ball in this one. Daba Fofana is the man to watch on Friday, and given that the Mustangs are allowing 28.6 ppg and allowed 34+ points in each of their last three games, I believe the visitors have a chance here.
Pick: Take the Midshipmen at -14.5 (-120)
The Mustangs opened the season with a couple of great offensive displays in which they scored 93 points, but after that, their offense didn’t play well. Navy did score 53 in a win over Tulsa, but that was an anomaly given that the Midshipmen are scoring 21.2 ppg, and I surely don’t expect the visitors to erupt again here. Under is 5-1 in the Midshipmen’s last six road games; Under is 9-4 in Navy’s previous 13 games overall, while Under is 4-1 in the Mustangs’ last five games overall.
Pick: Go Under 57.5 points (-110)