After a successful debut with NFL Prop Bets, I’m back for the MLB season taking a slightly different approach to betting these games. You can find one of the most thorough daily MLB write ups here on this site from Adam Burke so I’ll be doing something a bit different.
Every weekend, I’ll be posting a play from Sunday Night Baseball looking along the edges for opportunities in the prop betting market. Some good bets can be found looking at 1st inning scoring, 1st five innings sides or totals and looking at individual player props. Let’s get creative and have some fun!
If you had the Purdue +4.5pts last night and are reading this, then congrats on not smashing your head through a wall. Great game, but a tough loss for bettors. Don’t think we’ll see that much drama in tonight’s game but let’s hope so. Harper has already hit his first HR of the year so it’s unlikely he’ll get booed tonight, but if he K’s a few times then we can hope for some flying eggs or batteries.
For the debut of Sunday Night Baseball, we see the Phillies host the Braves after winning the opening two games of their home stand. Both games so far in this series have gone over the total as the pitching was mostly awful. Both bullpens got some use so there’s potential for some more runs tonight with rookie RHP Kyle Wright on the mound for Atlanta up against a healthy and motivated Jake Arrieta.
Wright is Atlanta’s number 2 prospect (MLB.com) who is trying to earn and hold his spot in the rotation. His Spring Training numbers included allowing 20 hits and 13 ER’s in 16 innings and he may be in a tough spot here on National television against a Philly offense that has just put up 18 runs against right handed pitching and are enjoying their revenge against a Braves team that won the division last year.
My lean here is with the Phillies but I feel stronger about more runs being scored as both bullpens are already pretty beaten up, I don’t have full confidence in either starter and I do think the Braves will be focused here as they don’t want to return to Atlanta tomorrow for their home opener after getting swept.
Full Game over 8.5 runs -105 (2 units)
Atlanta Braves team total over 3.5 runs -110 (1 unit)
1st inning run scored -105 (.5 unit)
I prefer the full game over the 1st 5 innings due to the bullpens, however, I like the potential for both pitchers to have some rust (Arrieta) or nerves (Wright) in the first inning. Batters should be jacked up for the 1st SNB game of the year on National TV.
Ronald Acuna Jr over 2 HITS/RUNS/RBIs -105 (1 unit)
Ender Inciarte over 2 HITS/RUNS/RBISs (-105) (1 unit)
JT Realmuto more HITS/RUNS/RBIs than Nick Markakis -130 (1 unit)
Freddie Freeman over Rhys Hoskins total bases -120 (1 unit)
Acuna is 1/7 to start the season and is due for a breakout so I like the odds here while Ender is just 1/8 so far but he should be batting leadoff and is 5/13 career (.385) vs Arrieta. Markakis is also due for some hits (1/8 so far) but has struggled lifetime vs Arrieta (2/18) so I prefer the big bat of Realmuto vs a rookie pitcher. Hoskins if off to a good start (.333 with a HR) but is a bit more reliant on the long ball while Freeman is a bit more reliable, is familiar with Arrieta and is 5/8 hitting so far.
For record keeping, I’ll be using a 1 to 3 unit bet stake where 1 unit will equal $100 and I’ll try to stick to commonly found bets/lines from one of six offshore books. I’ll take the vig into account during my tracking so on a -110 line, I’ll be betting $110 to win $100.