Last Updated: 2018-10-12
After stinking it up in the divisional playoffs with three losing underdogs, we’ll look to get back on track in the league championship series, beginning with the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Milwaukee Brewers. The Dodgers have been bet up to -165 and the Brewers are +145, so bettors don’t think too much of Milwaukee having home field advantage and with Gonzalez and Miley scheduled to go in the first two games for the Brewers, there might be a point to that.
The Dodgers averaged 5.23 runs per game on the road against left-handed starters and had a 21-14 record, while at home, Los Angeles scored 4.19 runs against LHP and were 19-12, so the Dodgers were a better hitting team against southpaws on the road. LA was also better on the road against RHP, although not quite 1.04 runs better. Still, the Dodgers played better on the road than they did at home this season and the majority of their wins were by two runs or more, with LA going 41-31 as a road favorite and a money-making 36-36 on the run line when favored away from home.
The Dodgers get the hitting edge, as well as in starting pitching, with the Brewers having the better bullpen of the two and Milwaukee will likely be quick to turn to the relievers if any of the starters get into trouble early on in this series.
The Dodgers haven’t named their starter for Game 2, as they may wait and see the outcome of Game 1 before deciding, although have to think the usual crew of Hill, Buehler and Ryu will get starts and Maeda will work out of the bullpen again, while the Brewers are good through the first three games, with Chacin going in Game 3.
This is a series where the price is a little higher than the Dodgers actual chances of winning, but the Dodgers should be able to pull it out, although probably not quite as easy as the odds indicate. The Dodgers have an extremely deep bench, which will work in their favor against the Milwaukee bullpen, as they can make changes in order to get a few decent hitting matchups. There aren’t many teams who can replace a Matt Kemp with a Yasiel Puig in the sixth inning of a game.
I took the Dodgers when the price was -150 here, and while I like it less at -165, think it’s probably the way to go in this series, which should go at least six games, as the Brewers are no pushover, but from the middle of May onward, the Dodgers were the best team in the National League and believe it shows here.
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