Last Updated: 2018-10-13
Have stunk it up with the series wagers so far in the MLB playoffs, which is to be expected considering all four favorites won in the opening round and I’ll typically take the underdog and frequently buy back some or all of a wager depending how the first few games of a series play out.
This isn’t one of those times, however, as I think the Astros are going to take care of the Red Sox in five or six games and think the -140 price is extremely reasonable. The Red Sox had the best record in baseball and have home field advantage, yet are underdogs to the Astros, which is a pretty good indication that Houston is going to be tough to knock off.
While neither team has officially named Game 3 starters, the Astros will almost certainly go with Dallas Keuchel and have Charlie Morton or even Lance McCullers for Game 4, a luxury no other team has. The Astros were 18-12 in the games Morton started and 14-8 in the games where McCullers took the mound and that’s not including the 20-15 record when Keuchel started.
Game 2 starters have been announced and Houston gets the nod with Gerrit Cole over David Price, as Houston was 25-8 with Cole on the hill compared to Boston’s record of 22-9 with Price on the mound and the Astros allowed close to a run less.
To make matters worse, the Houston bullpen also has better numbers than the Red Sox. While they may not have a closer with the numbers of Kimbrel, guys like Osuna and Rondon are pretty tough and they have a few other solid arms they can turn to.
Hitting-wise, both teams are solid and while the Red Sox had a higher-scoring team, a part of that has to do with Fenway Park, as the Astros were a higher-scoring away team than Boston during the season, which is probably a better indication, although you really can’t go wrong with either one.
The Astros won four of the seven games between the two teams this season, going 2-2 in Fenway and 2-1 at home. The split in Boston was a bit of an accomplishment, as the Sox were 20-5-2 in home series this year.
The Red Sox are a solid team and had a great season, but are running into a team that does things a little better than they do and have a decent pitching advantage, even if you want to call the two offenses even. Boston won’t go away without a fight, but have to think Houston is the way to go in this series.
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