Last Updated: 2018-10-04
The Milwaukee Brewers and the Colorado Rockies will begin their Best-of-5 playoff series today and the Brewers come in a solid -170 favorites, while the Rockies are +140 at Bovada, which is one of the only sportsbooks around who have odds posted on the series as of early Thursday morning.
Part of that has to do with the Brewers and their pitching by bullpen philosophy they appear to be using, as there’s no line out yet on the opening game, as Milwaukee hasn’t officially named a starter. It won’t really matter a whole lot, as whoever gets the ball isn’t likely to pitch all that much.
The Brewers could have given the ball to Wade Miley, but are under the impression the Rockies are a much-better hitting team against left-handers than they are right handers, which unfortunately hasn’t been the case. For the season, the Rockies average 4.49 runs per game against left-handed starters and 4.93 runs a game when the opposing team starts a right-handed pitcher. At home, the Rockies averaged 5.82 runs per game against right-handed starters and 4.97 against southpaw starters. The difference is less pronounced on the road, where Colorado averages 4.09 runs against RHP and 4.00 against LHP.
But instead of throwing Miley, the Brewers are going to give us the bullpen ploy, which is a huge mistake in my opinion. The Brewers were 12-4 in the games Miley started, allowing 3.44 runs a game and Miley’s teams are 8-5 when he starts against Colorado lifetime. The Brewers won all five games Gio Gonzalez started for them and he’s another who may see his innings cut back on the assumption the Rockies are better against left-handed pitchers.
Sure, the Brewers won a few more games than the Rockies did during the season, but at this point of the season, you have to go with what brought you to this point and for the Brewers one of those things that allowed them to get here was Miley.
The Rockies don’t have the same problem when it comes to pitching, and they’ll likely shorten their rotation a little bit and we’ll see Senzatela, Freeland and Marquez, while there’s a bit of a drop-off to their next starter Tyler Anderson. But if the Rockies can split in Milwaukee, they’ll have their two best pitchers at home for Games 3 and 4.
Going to take the Rockies as underdogs in this series, as I’m not a fan of what Milwaukee is doing and think these two teams are equal enough that +140 is a little too tough to pass up in this spot.
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