Home Free MLB Picks & Betting Articles MLB Overview, Picks, and Predictions August 11, 2020

MLB Overview, Picks, and Predictions August 11, 2020

Oakland Athletics (12-5) vs. LA Angels (6-11)
Michael Fiers (R) vs. Dylan Bundy (R)
9:40 PM EST Tuesday, August 11, 2020

Oakland Vs. LA Angels Free Pick Tuesday

For those new to my methods that span 25+ seasons, I use a simple 7 and 10-Star rating with the caveat that the 10-Star never exceeds 7% of your total bankroll. If you are a Dime Player, I would recommend $700 for the 7-Star and $1,000 for the 10-Star plays. I have made over $57K for the Dime Player since April of 2018. My approach is based on the long-term and not just a single day or even a week.

So, in this matchup of AL West members, the A’s are a road dog as they face the Angels starter Dylan Bundy, who is making his fourth start and has been dominating sporting a 2.08 ERA and o.600 WHIP. Bundy has a solid fastball with an above-average movement that drops an average of 8 inches and with an average of 7.4 inches of arm-side movement. The horizontal tailing action is late and gets in on the hands of a right-handed hitter making it nearly impossible to barrel up the pitch.

Bundy is Off to a Great Start

Bundy has three other pitches that combine for 50% and with the other half consisting of the sinker. He throws sliders at 82% MLB and accounts for about 20% of all pitches thrown, a change up that he uses mostly to left-handed batters accounts for 15%, and then a frisbee-type curve ball that averages 75MPH the remainder of the pitches thrown. So, he is not blazing fast by modern standards, but he has an array of pitches that have kept batters off balance so far this season.

Bundy was drafted in the first round of the 2011 draft by the Baltimore Orioles and was fortunately able to leave town and get on a team that at least has contender potential. He has faced the A’s in prior seasons and has allowed a 0.260 batting average with five home runs allowed spanning 94 at bats to the current players on the A’s roster. Based on my machine learning tools there is strong evidence that Bundy is going to struggle against the A’s lineup.

Are There Any Strong Betting Systems?

Here is a solid and consistent money maker that has earned a 58-38 record for 62% winners that bets on underdogs and has averaged a +138 dog line. The query instructs us to play on underdogs of +120 to +165 that have an excellent bullpen sporting an ERA of 3.75 or lower and is now facing a team with a hot starter posting a WHIP of 1.000 or lower over his last three starts and an opponent that has struggled at the plate batting 0.260 or lower.

Take the Oakland A’s tonight as a road underdog. The line you get is just fine and always do the best you can by using the best lines available. I have them at +148 right now at the MGM.

The Current State of MLB

MLB appears to have stabilized after the COVID-19 scares on a few teams put the season in jeopardy. The 60-game sprint is nearing the 1/3 complete level for the majority of the teams and with a few stunners so far. For instance, the Pittsburgh Pirates are 3-13 and their season is all but done at this point. They have lost a league-leading 6-games by one-run and just have not played well overall to date, but it does not mean they cannot win games in upset fashion. The Pirates are going to be priced attractively as the public sentiment for them cannot get worse. I do see them coming up on my radar in games played over the next few weeks so stay tuned for those big dog plays.

NL Current Conditions

The MLB format this season will include the two top teams in each division plus two more teams sporting the highest win percentage from each league that are not among the two top teams. The Colorado Rockies are off to a fast 11-5 start, but are only ½ game ahead of the LA Dodgers in the NL West Division race. The Rockies roster is designed for the 60-game sprint and I do not in any way see this start as a fluke.

The shocker though are the Marlins, who are tied with the Atlanta Braves for the NL East lead. The Marlins are 7-3, but due to the COVID-19 hit have played 7 games fewer than the Braves. Double headers will be frequent for the Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies moving forward. However, do not for one second underestimate the Marlins, who have loads of extremely talented arms and hitters on their roster.

American League Status

The Oakland A’s (12-5) and their money ball Billy Beane-driven approach to the game are alive and well in the Bay area. They sport a 12-5 record, which is best in the League and hold a comfortable lead over the stumbling Houston Astros, who are just 7-9 on the season. The A’s are in position to run away from the other Divisional opponents (Texas, Seattle, Angels) right now if their third-best in MLB pitching staff (3.10 ERA and 1.113 WHIP) continue dominating opponents.

What Team Has Hit the Most Home Runs in MLB?

It is not the New York Yankees, Dodgers, or Minnesota Twins, who led the MLB to a destruction of the league-record for most home runs in a season in 2019. Surprisingly, the league leaders this season are the San Diego Padres with 30 ‘dingers’ followed by the Dodgers with 29, LA Angels with 28, the Yankees with 27, and the Atlanta Braves with 26 rounding out the Top-5.

After Aaron Judge helped the Yankees get out to a fast start using the home run they have run cold as a team of late. The Yankees rank ninth in MLB averaging 4.94 runs-per-game and their pitching staff has grossly underperformed, ranking 20th with a team ERA of 4.30 on the season. I am not going to back the Yankees on the premise they are going to revert back to their mean performance because these levels may be their mean norm. I recommend caution over the next week in backing the Yankees, who will have inflated lines.

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