There are six teams in action early, but 24 teams in action late, so we’ll focus on the majority of the card by looking at these nighttime contests. As always, there are plenty of DFS opportunities to maximize your bankroll. There are only two months left in the regular season, which ends October 2, barring a Game #163 for a playoff spot, so time is actually winding down a little bit for you to build up your account prior to football season.
Remember that our column here at BangTheBook is centered exclusively on finding value. You know who the good players are. So does everybody else. It’s those under-the-radar guys that you pair with those high-salary players that allow you to come out on top.
DraftKings or FanDuel are the industry leaders in ease of use and safe, free transactions. Use these tips and the tips from our daily radio show to improve your abilities and fill out the winning lineup. Our MLB daily fantasy tips and suggestions article is different in that we’re not looking for the top scorers, but for the best values so that you can get the edge that you need in order to save money for the game’s best players.
The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for August 3:
Toronto – Regression hit Collin McHugh, backed over his lifeless body, and then rolled over him again last time out. Was that a blip on the radar or a sign of something more? The shelling bumped his ERA back up to 4.75 and he does show signs of positive regression by the advanced metrics, but his command has been subpar throughout the season. A .362 BABIP against is certainly evidence of that. It’s a fairly quick turnaround and I’m skeptical whether or not McHugh can make adjustments in short order.
Chicago (AL) – Today in unpopular stacking options, we find the White Sox. The 23-year-old does show the statistical signs of regression with a 2.50 ERA, a 3.69 FIP, and a 3.85 xFIP. He’s thriving on a .252 BABIP with a ground ball split above 51 percent and an 82.3 percent strand rate. Lefties only have a 16.5 percent K% against Fulmer, but have only posted a .261 BABIP against. At home, Fulmer has allowed a .219 BABIP. The Tigers aren’t among the league leaders in defense, so these numbers are surprising.
Houston – Things are starting to turn a little bit for Marco Estrada. Estrada’s record-low BABIP is no longer a record holder, as it has gradually kept up to .208. He’s given up at least three runs in five of his last seven starts, without allowing a home run, so there’s still the possibility of some HR/FB% regression here. A lot of people have been waiting for Estrada to fall off and he’s recently spent some time on the DL, so he may be ripe for a really bad outing.
Here are the top value hitters for August 3:
David Dahl ($3,000) – If it ain’t broke…David Dahl has a seven-game hit streak to start his MLB career and he’s slashing .355/.394/.581 thus far. Dahl draws a Triple-A pitcher in Brock Stewart today at Coors Field, so this is a guy that he should have some familiarity with and an easier guy to handle than most Major League arms. Stewart gave up five runs in five inning in his MLB debut.
Matt Joyce ($3,700) – Matt Joyce should have a productive night against right-hander Rob Whalen, who is making his MLB debut for the Braves. Joyce owns a .288/.411/.568 slash with the platoon advantage this season and he’ll have that against Whalen. Joyce has a .412 wOBA and a 163 wRC+ in this split, which means he has been 63 percent above league average against righties.
Steve Pearce ($3,400) – The reason that the Baltimore Orioles reunited with Steve Pearce is because they needed a bat to do some damage against left-handed pitching. Pearce gets that opportunity tonight against Cole Hamels. Pearce has a robust .389/.484/.741 slash against southpaws on the season and Hamels has had some HR issues in the platoon split this year.
Here are the top value pitchers for August 3:
Kendall Graveman ($5,700) – Very quietly, Kendall Graveman has been a really solid pitcher for the last 2.5 months. Graveman has a 3.38 ERA with a 3.64 FIP as his ground ball stuff has been able to play up. The problem with Graveman is that you don’t have a lot of wiggle room because he doesn’t really miss bats. At this price point, though, in this park, he should be worth a stream. He’s only allowed four HR over his last 13 starts and it’s tough to string hits together at times.
Michael Wacha ($6,000) – Michael Wacha draws a nice assignment on Wednesday against the Cincinnati Reds. Wacha is not having the year that he or the Cardinals envisioned, but he’s got a reasonable K rate and some signs of positive regression with a 4.38 ERA, but a 3.71 FIP and a 3.96 xFIP. The Reds are a good team to stream against for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is their 84 wRC+ against righties.
Steven Matz ($8,800) – Steven Matz is having another fine season for the Mets and he should have a fine start here against the Yankees. The Yankees are 27th in wOBA against left-handed pitching on the season and lost one of their better hitters in that split with the Carlos Beltran trade. Matz has been working through a bone spur, but it hasn’t really affected his season all that much and he’s been very reliable with a 3.35 ERA, a 3.34 FIP, and a 3.45 xFIP.