Doubleheaders were once one of the great bargains in baseball. Typically held on weekends, a twinbill allowed fans to see two games for the price of one, something that didn’t sit too well with the owners. In their infinite wisdom, the owners came up with the idea of having day – night doubleheaders, so fans could still see two games in one day, only they’d have to pay to see each game individually. These are seldom scheduled, but only put into place after rainouts and other unforeseen circumstances.
For bettors, the doubleheader poses several interesting questions, such as how the losing team of the first game does in the second game. If the first game goes over does the second stay under? Do home teams have any special edge? Those are some of the questions we’ll answer in this small series.
But first, let’s look at what happens the day after a doubleheader. The prevailing concept is that the teams will use a number of pitchers in the doubleheader. If the starter struggles at all, the team can leave him in longer than normal or bring in a tired relief pitcher. Either way, that should bode well for the over and after digging into it, there is some logic to that assumption.
The day after a doubleheader, when the same two teams are playing, games have gone 110-87-8 in totals, which has yielded a profit of $1,545 and an ROI of roughly 6.9% by playing the over. If you discount the games that are expected to be decent pitcher’s battles; those games with a total of 6.5 or less, you can up your winning percentage slightly. Those games with a total of 7 or more have produced a record of 110-87-8, which has yielded a profit of $1,785 and a ROI of roughly 8%.
Home teams have also fared better than expected the day after a doubleheader. Whether it’s due to an extremely tired road team being in unfamiliar surroundings or a case of something different, it’s proven difficult for road teams to overcome. Home teams have gone 124-81 for a flat-bet profit of $2,946 and an ROI of 10.6%. Home underdogs have fared the best, going 38-28 for a profit of $1,699 and an impressive ROI of 25%, while home favorites haven’t done bad and show a profit of just under $1,400, although the ROI is quite a bit less at 6.7%.
Where things get interesting is if there was a sweep in the doubleheader. If the home team swept the doubleheader they follow that up with a 41-21 record and a profit of $1,666 with an 18.5% ROI. Home underdogs were 10-6 for an ROI of greater than 37.5%. If the road team swept the doubleheader home teams are 28-20 for a profit of $669 and an ROI of 11.4%.
Give the home teams and the over a good look the day after a doubleheader if the same two teams are meeting once again.
