It’s almost the All-Star break and this is when teams will shake out as buyers or seller, as well as know that there season is essentially over. That can make it difficult on a short-term daily basis and for that reason we should look at the longer term options sooner rather than later.
If we sorted the NL playoffs right now we’d likely have three “new” teams in the mix, or at least teams that haven’t been overly relevant for some time. The Brewers would win the NL Central and one or both of Arizona and Colorado would be Wild Card teams. Here are their respective odds at the best numbers I can find quickly:
As we talked about when we looked at College Football Futures, it’s not always about cashing the big plus-money bet and turning a little into a lot. It’s about creating equity and being in position to insure a profit later on down the road. We also don’t want the sportsbooks holding our money for months on end without some reasonable expectation of a return.
If we were to put a unit on each of these three it’s quite likely at this point at least two of them are in the Playoffs, and that’s all we’re looking for. Ideally we’d have two of these teams playing one another and that would assure us at least one of them being in the NLCS. At that point, we would have multiple options of betting on the other team, either for the series or game-to-game. Either way, we’ve created a great equity position.
When I look at the other teams that people consider in the fold, I don’t see much. People will be all over the Washington Nationals, but their weakness is clearly their bullpen. The Dodgers have Kershaw and a bullpen, but in a short series anything can happen, especially if they go into one of those hitting droughts they’re famous for. I know Bellinger is a freak show, but he will regress somewhat as teams learn how to pitch to him. Remember, bettors know what they saw last, and what’s on ESPN night after night. That’s not the whole story, generally.
Colorado can out score anyone. Arizona has a little of everything. Milwaukee has done it with pitching, of all things. They’ll start hitting, and clearly adding Vogt is a sign that they’re going for it now. Yes, I know there are the Cubs. Chicago is under .500 on the road, the Brewers are not. Anything can and does usually happen, and we want to be prepared for it.