MLB Betting Odds Analysis & Tips October 26, 2017

 

Last Updated: 2017-10-27

Game 3 of the World Series moves to Houston, where the Astros will send Lance McCullers Jr. to the mound to be opposed by Yu Darvish. The Astros have climbed to -132, making this game only the fifth time the Dogeers have been an underdog of +120 or more this season. The Dodgers were 1-3 in those first four games.

The Astros were favored -132 or less at home 15 times and were 8-7 in those games, another losing proposition for flat-bet wagering. This is the lowest McCullers has been priced at home all season, where the Astros went 6-3 in his starts. He was at least -160 in his other home starts.

The Dodgers are 7-4 when Yu Darvish has taken the mound for them and he was favored in all of those starts but one, the victory at Chicago against the Cubs in the playoffs. Darvish has had a couple of rough outings with the Dodgers, but for the most part has been solid since coming over from Texas. Los Angeles allows an average of 3.36 runs per game when he starts, compared to the 4.77 the Rangers allowed with him on the hill, a number that is a bit misleading, as he started the game they lost to Miami 22-10.

Darvish has been better on the road this season and had a solid start at Houston as a member of the Rangers, while McCullers typically posts better numbers at home, but had several bad starts, which have inflated his numbers a bit.

McCullers has battled some injury issues down the stretch and flat-out hadn’t pitched well up until the playoffs started. In his last 10 starts, only twice has the opposition been held to three or fewer runs and in six of those games, the Astros allowed seven or more runs. For comparison, Darvish has held five of the last 10 opponents to three runs or fewer and allowed seven runs once and six runs two times.

Morton was expected to get the start and had opened up -115 over Darvish, but the line climbed a bit when McCullers was announced as the starter. He looked strong in relief against the Yankees, but it’s a question of if he can keep it against the Dodgers.

The Dodgers have seen McCullers just once, back in 2015, while Darvish has faced the Astros six times the past two seasons. He’s had a few good starts and some poor ones, as well.

The line is pretty close to where it should be, as I have it Houston -124, but will have to take the underdog in this spot.

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