Making on a bet on this NCAA game featuring the Bears versus the Panthers? Tip off is at at 8:00 ET, and you can watch it all unfold on ESPN+. The game will be played at McLeod Center in Cedar Falls, IA. The over/under line for this matchup is currently at 138.5 points, and Northern Iowa is favored by -4.5 to win at home against Missouri State.


The Pick: Northern Iowa Panthers -4.5

This game will be played at McLeod Center at 8:00 ET on Wednesday, February 7th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 76-69 in favor of the Panthers.
  • Not only will Northern Iowa pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -4.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 138.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 145 points.

Is A Road Victory Likely for Underdog Missouri State?

Missouri State heads into this game with a record of 14-9 and a three-game win streak. They are 5-6 in Missouri Valley Conference play compared to their non-conference record of 9-3. As the underdog, they are 4-6 this season, and they have gone 3-6 on the road.

Over their last ten games on the road, they have gone just 4-6. Their average scoring differential on the road this season is -5.8 compared to +5.3 at home. In their last game, they beat Belmont by a score of 87-80.

As the underdog, Missouri State has gone 4-5-1 against the spread this season. On the road, their ATS mark is 3-5-1, but they have gone 2-1 vs. the spread in their last three road games. Overall, the Bears have an ATS record of 11-9-1.

Missouri State games have an average over/under line of 141.9 this season, which is the same as the average points scored per game in their games. Over their last three games, the over/under record is 3-0 and the average scoring total is 156 points.

The Missouri State offense is coming off a game in which they scored 87 points vs. Belmont. Overall their field goal percentage was 50% while connecting on 7 threes. Leading Missouri State in scoring vs. Belmont was Chance Moore with his 23 points. Brad Mason also added 22 points for the Bears.

The Bears’ defense is presently ranked 132nd nationally, allowing an average of 70.8 points per contest. On average, opposing teams are hitting 7.3 threes per game vs. Northern Iowa. This has come on three-point shooting percentage of 31.7%.

Can the Panthers Lock in a Home Win?

After losing three straight games, Northern Iowa will look to get back on track at home against Missouri State. So far this season, the Panthers have gone 6-4 at home compared to 5-7 on the road.

For the season, Northern Iowa has gone 12-11, including a 6-6 record in Missouri Valley Conference games. As the favorite, the Panthers have gone 8-3 this season.

As the favorite this season, Northern Iowa has an ATS record of 6-5. At home, their ATS record is 5-5. However, over their last three home games, the Panthers have gone 0-3 vs. the spread.

So far this season, the over/under record for Northern Iowa games is 10-12, and today’s line of 138.5 is slightly lower than the average OU line in their games of 144.3. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 135 points, and their OU record over their last 10 games is 2-8.

Coming off their recent game, the Northern Iowa offense tallied 43 points in a matchup against Murray State. Their field goal percentage for the game was 30.6%, and they made 6 threes. Currently leading the team in scoring is Nate Heise who comes into today’s matchup averaging 13.4. Bowen Born also heads into the game with a PPG average of 13.8.

In terms of defense, Northern Iowa is currently on par with the NCAA average for points allowed, giving up an average of 71.4 points per game. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Northern Iowa’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 43.1% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 33.7% this season.