Making on a bet on this NCAA game featuring the Bears versus the Redbirds? Tip off is at at 8:00 ET, and you can watch it all unfold on ESPN+. The game will be played at CEFCU Arena in Normal, IL. The odds for this Missouri Valley conference game currently have Illinois State as the -4.5 point favorite with the over/under line sitting at 135.5 points.


The Pick: Illinois State Redbirds -4.5

This game will be played at CEFCU Arena at 8:00 ET on Wednesday, February 28th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 76-69 in favor of the Redbirds.
  • Not only will Illinois State pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -4.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 135.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 145 points.

Can the Bears Pull Out the Win as Road Underdogs?

Missouri State comes into this game as the underdog, as they are getting 4.5 points on the road. So far this season, they have gone 5-11 in games where they are the underdog.

On the road, the Bears have gone 4-9 this season, and they have lost their last three games away from home. Over their last 10 games on the road, they have gone 4-6.

Missouri State has an overall ATS record of 13-14-1 this season. On the road, they are just 4-8-1 vs. the spread. As the underdog, the Bears have gone 6-9-1 vs. the spread this year. Over their last 3 road games, Missouri State is 0-3 ATS and they are 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games as the underdog.

Missouri State’s over/under record this season is 15-13 and the average scoring total in their games is 144.3 points. Today’s over/under line of 135.5 is lower than the average OU line in their games (142.2). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 158 points and their over/under record during this span is 3-0. So far, 19 of their games have finished with more points than today’s OU line.

The Missouri State offense is coming off a game in which they scored 78 points vs. Belmont. Overall their field goal percentage was 49.2% while connecting on 7 threes. The team’s scoring leader is Alston Mason, who holds an average of 18 as they head into today’s matchup. Additionally, Donovan Clay is averaging 12.7 points per game this season.

The Bears’ defense is presently ranked 190th nationally, allowing an average of 72.7 points per contest. In their previous game vs. Belmont, the Bruins finished with a field goal percentage of 47% and a total of 93 points vs. Missouri State.

Does Illinois State Have What it Takes to Win as Home Favorites?

Illinois State will be looking to bounce back from a 48-45 loss to Bradley in their last game. They have gone 5-5 in their last 10 home games and are 9-6 at home this season. As the favorite, the Redbirds are 7-5.

Overall, Illinois State is 14-15, including an 8-10 record in conference play. They have gone 6-5 in non-conference games. For the season, their average scoring margin is +1.3 points per game.

Illinois State’s overall ATS record this season is .500 at 14-14. At home, the Redbirds are 8-7 vs. the spread this year. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, Illinois State has gone 6-4 ATS.

Today’s over/under line of 135.5 is lower than the average over/under line in Illinois State’s games this season (139). So far, 17 of their games have finished with less points than today’s line. In their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1.

In contrast to their season average of 66.5 points per game, the Illinois State had a below average performance. They scored 45 points against Bradley and had a field goal percentage of 28.3%. Myles Foster is leading the team in scoring at 12 points per contest. Darius Burford has also been a key contributor with a PPG average of 13.2 going into the game.

Coming into today’s game, the Illinois State defense is giving up an average of 67.5 points per contest. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Illinois State’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 42.9% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 32.0% this season.