Planning on watching today’s Bulldogs and Tigers game? Catch the action at Neville Arena in Auburn, AL, as the Tigers hosts this showdown at 4:00 ET on ESPN2. This Southeastern conference matchup has an over/under of 145.5 points, and Auburn is favored to win by -9.5 at home vs. Mississippi State.


The Pick: Mississippi State Bulldogs +9.5

This game will be played at Neville Arena at 4:00 ET on Saturday, March 2nd.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 75-70 in favor of the Tigers.
  • Even though we have Auburn winning straight-up, we like Mississippi State at +9.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 145.5 points, and we like the under with a projected 145 points.

Will Mississippi State Win on the Road?

Mississippi State comes into this game as a 9.5-point underdog. On the road this season, the Bulldogs have gone 6-6, and their average scoring margin is +3.5 points per game.

Over their last 10 road games, Mississippi State has gone 5-5. In their last game, the Bulldogs lost to Kentucky by a score of 91-89.

Mississippi State has an ATS record of 14-13-1 this season, including a road ATS mark of 6-6. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Bulldogs have gone 5-5 vs. the spread. On the road, their ATS record is 5-5 in their last 10 games.

Mississippi State’s over/under record for the season sits at 13-14-1, and the average scoring total in their games is 143.8 points. Today’s over/under line of 145.5 is higher than the average OU line in their games (141), and this year, 15 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. Over their last three games, their over/under record is 3-0, and the average scoring total in those contests is 162 points.

In their latest game, Mississippi State’s offense looked good, scoring 89 points against Kentucky. They recorded an overall field goal percentage of 51.6% and made 12/17 free throws. Leading the team in scoring was Josh Hubbard with 34 points. Tolu Smith also added 21 points for the Bulldogs.

Coming into today’s game, the Mississippi State defense is giving up an average of 68.3 points per contest. The Mississippi State defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 91 points and allowed Kentucky to connect on 11 threes.

Will the Tigers Make it Happen at Home?

At home this season, Auburn has been dominant, going 13-1 with an average scoring margin of +19.7 points per game. Over their last ten games at home, the Tigers are 9-1. Overall, Auburn is 21-7 this season, including a 10-5 mark in Southeastern Conference play.

Coming off a 92-84 loss to Tennessee, Auburn is 21-5 this season when favored. The Tigers have been favored in 26 of their 28 games. For the year, Auburn has an average scoring margin of +9.4 points per game on the road, where they are 8-6.

As the favorite this season, Auburn’s ATS record is 17-9. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Tigers have gone 7-3 vs. the spread. At home, Auburn has an ATS record of 9-5 this year and is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.

This season, Auburn games have an over/under record of 12-16 and today’s line of 145.5 is slightly lower than the average over/under line in their games (150.8). So far, 13 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. In their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 and the average scoring total in those games is 159 points.

Coming off a good offensive performance, Auburn’s offense scored 84 points against Tennessee. Their field goal percentage for the game was 45.8%, and they went 21/28 from the free-throw line. Johni Broome is leading the team in scoring at 16.3 points per contest. Jaylin Williams has also been a key contributor with a PPG average of 12.9 going into the game.

Currently, the Tigers’ defense holds the 77th rank in the nation, allowing 68.2 points per game. In today’s game vs. Mississippi State, the Auburn defense will be looking to do a better job avoiding putting opponents on the line. In their last game, Auburn made 27 free-throws vs. the Tigers.