Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees Betting Pick 10/04/19

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The New York Yankees are playing host to the Minnesota Twins in Game 1 of the ALDS. The series gets officially underway at 7:07 p.m. ET and this opening game will be televised on MLB Network.

Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees Odds

Vegas has listed New York (-180) as the favorite over Minnesota (+170). Bettors can wager on the game’s total with odds sitting at +110 for over 9.5 runs and -130 for under 9.5. There’s a runline of Twins +1.5 (-130) and Yankees -1.5 (+110) for this matchup.

In the regular season, the Yankees are 103-59 straight up (SU) and 93-69 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 13.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 23.1 units ATS. New York has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. On the other hand, the Twins have gone 101-61 SU this year and are 90-72 ATS. They’ve gained 22.4 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 11.2 units ATS. Minnesota has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven.

New York games have had an over/under record of 85-72-5 in 2019. The Twins have an over/under record of 81-76-5.

Jose Berrios will get the start for Minnesota. The right-handed Berrios is 14-8 with a 3.68 ERA and 195 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Yankees this year and only made one start against them in 2018 (0-1, 11.25 ERA and seven strikeouts across four innings).

The Yankees are putting the ball in the left hand of James Paxton (15-6, 3.82 ERA, 1.28 WHIP), who’s got 186 strikeouts and 55 walks. Paxton is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA in one start against Minnesota this year.

New York’s pitching staff has allowed 4.6 runs per game overall in 2019 as a unit. Its starters have an ERA of 4.51, a WHIP of 1.29 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.1. The bullpen has a 4.08 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 10.2 K/9.

The New York hitters have produced 5.8 runs per outing, including 4.9 per game over its last 10 games and 4.0 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .209/.277/.395 over its last five contests and is 1-4 SU during that span.

Second baseman DJ LeMahieu and shortstop Gleyber Torres have led the Yankees’ hitters this year. LeMahieu is hitting .327/.375/.518 with 26 home runs, 102 RBIs and 109 runs scored, and the line for Torres stands at .278/.337/.535 with 38 homers, 90 RBIs and 96 runs.

For the visitors, Minnesota’s pitching staff allowed 4.7 runs per game and its starters own a 4.19 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 8.54 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.17, along with a K-per-9 of 9.71.

Twins hitters have slashed .270/.340/.494 on their way to 5.8 runs scored per game in 2019, including 6.2 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 5.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (4-1 SU).

Shortstop Jorge Polanco and left fielder Eddie Rosario continue to lead Minnesota’s offense. Polanco is hitting .295/.356/.485 with 22 home runs, 79 RBIs and 107 runs scored. Rosario is hitting .276/.300/.500 with 32 homers, 109 RBIs and 91 runs scored.

The Twins have gained 1.1 units and are 22-17 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has cashed in 22 of those games, as opposed to 15 that’ve gone under against lefties. On the other hand, the Yankees have netted 7.8 units and are 61-50 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in 58 of those games, compared to 50 that went under.

Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees Free MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Yankees, ATS Winner – Twins, O/U – OVER

Notes

Betting Notes

The over has cashed in three of New York’s last seven games.

The Twins have a team OPS of .834 this season, including an OPS of .878 against left-handed pitchers. The Yankees’ OPS stands at .830 overall and .851 against lefties.

The Yankees have dropped four of their last five games SU.

Minnesota fielders have committed two errors over the last five games, compared to six errors for New York over its last five.

The Twins have hit 18 home runs in their last 10 games, including 10 over their last five.

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