The Twins (87-75, 40-41 away) travel to take on the Astros (90-72, 39-42 home) in game one of this American League matchup. Bailey Ober is getting the start for the Twins while Justin Verlander is starting for the Astros. See who I like to pick up the win in today’s Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros showdown at Minute Maid Park.
MINNESOTA TWINS VS HOUSTON ASTROS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Minnesota Twins +1.5 Runs
This game will be played at Minute Maid Park at 4:45 ET on Saturday, October 7th.
WHY BET THE MINNESOTA TWINS:
- Over their last five games on the road, Minnesota is 3-2 against the runline.
- The Twins have covered the runline in each of their two most recent games as the underdog.
- In Bailey Ober’s five most recent starts, the Twins are 2-1.
MINNESOTA TWINS LOOKING TO EXTEND AL CENTRAL LEAD
For the season, the Twins are 87-75 and 84-80 against the runline. In the AL Central, they are in 1st place and have gone 29-23 against division opponents. On the road, Minnesota have won five straight series. The Twins’ season-long over/under record sits at 81-76.
Bailey Ober has been impressive in his 26 appearances this season, boasting a .397 slugging percentage allowed and a 1.07 WHIP. His 8-6 record is accompanied by an ERA of 3.43, and he has recorded 146 strikeouts while averaging 9.1 per nine innings. Ober’s road record stands at 5-3, with an ERA of 4.03, while his home record is 3-3 with an ERA of 3.49.
Bailey Ober notched a quality start in his most recent outing, hurling 6 2/3 innings and allowing just one run. Unfortunately, the Twins were unable to come away with the victory, falling to the Rockies 3-2.
For the season, the Twins’ offense is averaging 4.8 runs per game. Over their last five games they have swung the bats well, sitting 5th in the league in scoring, with a total of 30 runs. Overall, Minnesota’s team batting average is .243, putting them 14th in the MLB.
Max Kepler has been a key contributor to the Twins’ offense over their last five games, leading the team in hits with a .350 batting average. This season, Kepler is hitting .260 and has driven in 66 runs.
WILL THE HOUSTON ASTROS TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS AT HOME?
Winners of four straight games, the Astros are in 2nd place in the AL West. So far, they have a series win percentage of 59% (27-19-4). Houston has gone 51-30 on the road this season compared to 39-42 at home.
The Astros will turn to Justin Verlander, who has a 13-8 record on the season. Across 27 outings, he’s posted an ERA of 3.22 and a K/9 rate of 7.98. His FIP stands at 3.85, while his OBP is .277.
Justin Verlander notched a victory in his most recent outing, as the Astros edged out the Diamondbacks 1-0. The veteran righty was masterful, surrendering just two hits and no runs over nine innings of work.
Having gone deep 11 times in their last ten games, the Astros are 8th in that span. At 5.1 runs per game, Houston is 5th in the league. This figure has come on a team batting average of .259 while hitting a total of 222 home runs (6th).
Jose Altuve has been a consistent force for the Astros this season, boasting a .311 batting average and .522 slugging percentage. Over the past ten games, Altuve has been Houston’s leader in hits, batting .307 over that span.