Lucas Giolito will get the start for the Guardians (66-71, 35-34 home) as they host the Twins (71-66, 31-37 away) at Progressive Field. The Twins will give the starting nod to Pablo López. Check out my prediction for game one of this AL Central matchup between the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians.


The Pick: Cleveland Guardians +116

This game will be played at Progressive Field at 6:10 ET on Monday, September 4th.


  • The Twins have lost their two most recent games when favored on the moneyline.
  • So far this year, the Guardians lead the season series against the Twins 6-4.
  • Opponents are hitting a healthy .320 against Pablo López in his last three starts.


The Twins will be playing their 137th game of the season today and are 1st in the AL Central on a record of 71-66. So far, Minnesota has won 58.0% of their games at home compared to 45.6% on the road. Against divisional opponents, the Twins are 24-21 and have played a total of 42 series, going 20-17-5.

Pablo López is taking the mound for his 28th start of the 2023 season with a record of 9-7. His ERA stands at 3.72, and opponents are batting .233 against him. On the road, he has been impressive with a 5-4 record and a 3.07 ERA, while at home he is 4-3 with an ERA of 5.14. For the season, teams have managed to compile a slugging percentage of .381 against him.

Pablo López’s most recent start ended in a loss for the Twins against the Guardians. The right-hander pitched six innings and allowed three runs, resulting in the defeat.

For the season, the Twins’ offense is averaging 4.5 runs per game. Over their last ten games they have swung the bats well, sitting 3rd in the league in scoring, with a total of 61 runs. Overall, Minnesota’s team batting average is .240, putting them 15th in the MLB.

Over the Twins’ last five games, Donovan Solano has been a force at the plate, leading the team in hits and batting .325. This season, Solano has been a consistent contributor to the offense, boasting a .294 average and 33 RBIs.


Leading up to today’s game, the Guardians are 2nd in the AL Central on a record of 66-71. Overall, they have played in 42 different series, going 17-21-4. When playing above .500 teams, the Guardians are 66-71, and currently hold win percentages of 50.7% at home and 45.6% on the road.

Cleveland’s Lucas Giolito has had a challenging season thus far, with an overall record of 7-11 and ERA of 4.45. His ERA is significantly higher on the road (7.22) than at home (2.60). Giolito’s WHIP stands at 1.27, while his opponents have managed a .233 batting average and .449 slugging percentage against him.

His season has been a bit of a roller coaster, but he’s still managed to post a 4.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in the early going.

Lucas Giolito’s 2023 campaign with the Guardians has been a bit of an up-and-down ride so far.

The Guardians have been one of the top power lineups in the league of late, having hit 3 home runs over their last five games. Compared to other clubs, this is 8th best in that span. For the season, they are ranked 24th in home runs and 24th in slugging percentage. Overall, Cleveland is averaging 4.1 runs per game (27th).

Ramón Laureano has been a key contributor to the Cleveland offense this season, boasting a .219 batting average and .364 slugging percentage. Over the team’s last ten contests, he has been especially impressive, leading the Indians in hits while batting .276.