The MLB betting action goes on Sunday, June 19, 2022, with plenty of interesting matchups around the leagues, including the three-game interleague series finale at Chase Field in Phoenix, so here’s the best Twins vs. Diamondbacks betting pick.
Arizona beat Minnesota 7-2 last Friday, upsetting the odds as +120 home dogs on MyBookie Sportsbook. It was the first meeting between the Twins and Diamondbacks in five years and Arizona’s first win over Minnesota since 2014. The middle game of this set has been excluded from the analysis, while the Twins open as slight -115 moneyline favorites for Sunday’s closer.
The Twins’ shaky form continues
The 37-29 Minnesota Twins entered Friday’s clash at Chase Field looking for their third straight series victory. However, Minnesota hasn’t impressed in the last few weeks. The Twins have dropped eight of their previous 15 games overall, and their pitching staff holds a 5.19 ERA and .260 opposing batting average in June.
Chris Archer (1-2; 3.35 ERA) will take the mound Sunday. He’s yet to get more than 15 outs in an outing this season. The 33-year-old righty has tossed five innings only twice over his 12 starts in 2022. In his last six showings, Archer has allowed ten runs (seven earned) on 21 hits and 11 walks across 26 frames of work (2.42 ERA, 3.48 FIP).
The Twins desperately need more from their offense, too. Over its previous five tilts, Minnesota has accounted for ten runs on a terrible .216/.280/.305 slash line. At least, Byron Buxton has been a monster across his 56 plate appearances in June, hitting .306/.393/.857 with eight home runs and 12 RBIs.
The Diamondbacks hope to turn things around
The Arizona Diamondbacks improved their record to 31-35 for the season with that 7-2 victory over the Twins. It was their second straight win and third in five games, but the D-backs have gone only 5-8 in their previous 13 outings at any location.
Arizona has scored 34 runs on a .251/.320/.388 triple-slash in its previous five showings, though 13 came in a comfortable victory at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia last Sunday. The D-backs have yielded 17 runs in that five-game stretch, but their ERA sits at 4.20 for the month of June.
Merrill Kelly will take the hill Sunday and try to bounce back from last weekend’s performance in a 5-4 defeat to the Cincinnati Reds. He gave up five earned runs on eight hits and two walks across six innings. The 33-year-old holds a 5-4 record, 3.68 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 61/29 K/BB ratio in 13 starts (71 frames) this season.
- 5-1 in the last six games against Arizona
- 4-2 in Chris Archer’s last six starts
- 4-7 in the last 11 games at home
- 2-5 in Merrill Kelly’s last seven starts
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Pick
Neither team has impressed at the plate lately. The current Diamondbacks have only 11 at-bats against Chris Archer (three hits, one home run), while the Twins’ lineup is 1-for-6 versus Merrill Kelly. I’m expecting to see a tight battle, so the totals seem like a way to go.
The Twins arguably have more firepower in their bullpen than Arizona, though both ‘pens have done a good job in the last ten days. Minnesota’s relievers have compiled a 2.65 ERA, 3.38 FIP, and .264 BABIP across 37.1 innings, and Arizona’s bullpen has registered a 1.98 ERA, 3.47 FIP, and .294 BABIP through 36.1 frames.
Pick: Take Minnesota Twins at -115
I’m going with the under on the totals as my Twins vs. Diamondbacks betting pick. Anything can happen on any given day, but the Twins and D-backs haven’t hit the ball well lately. While Merrill Kelly has surrendered three or fewer runs in each but two of his 13 starts this season, Chris Archer has allowed more than a couple of runs twice in 12 starts, albeit in 22.2 innings less than Kelly.
Four of the Twins’ previous five games have gone under the total along with a push. On the other side, the under is 6-3-1 in Arizona’s previous ten outings at home.
Pick: Go under 9.5 runs at -110