Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians Free Pick 07/12/19

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Last Updated: 2019-07-12

Carlos Santana and the streaking Cleveland Indians are gunning for their seventh consecutive victory when they play host to the Minnesota Twins at Progressive Field. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET and Fox Sports North is in line to showcase the action.

Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Indians Odds

Oddsmakers are listing Minnesota (+110) as the underdog to Cleveland (-120). The total stands at nine runs and bettors can wager on the over for -105 and the under for -115. There’s a runline of Twins +1.5 (-190) and Indians -1.5 (+165) for this matchup.

The Indians are 50-38 straight up (SU) and 44-44 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 1.7 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 0.6 units ATS. Cleveland has covered the spread six times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Twins are 56-33 SU and have gone 49-40 against the spread. They’ve accumulated 16.4 units for gamblers taking the moneyline and 6.2 units ATS. Minnesota is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

Cleveland games have an over/under record of 39-46-3 so far in 2019. Twins games have gone over 45 times, gone under 39 times and pushed on five occasions.

Kyle Gibson will get the nod for the visiting Twins. The right-handed Gibson (8-4, 4.09 ERA) has racked up 94 strikeouts in 94.2 innings so far. He has yet to face Cleveland this year, but he made five starts against the Indians in 2018, putting together a 1-3 record against them with a 4.66 ERA and 23 strikeouts.

The Indians are planning to start righty Mike Clevinger (2-2, 4.44 ERA), who’s got 40 punchouts and 10 walks as well as a 0.99 WHIP. Clevinger made three starts against the Twins in 2018, posting a 1-0 record with a 2.29 ERA and 17 strikeouts.

Cleveland’s pitching staff has allowed 4.2 runs per game overall in 2019 as a unit. Its starters have an ERA of 4.21, a WHIP of 1.21 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.8. The bullpen has a 3.48 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 9.2 K/9. In 36 games against AL Central foes, Indians starters have an ERA of 4.03 and the bullpen’s ERA is 2.92.

The Cleveland offense is putting up 4.5 runs per outing, including 4.5 per game against divisional foes and 7.8 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .335/.414/.605 over its last five games and is 5-0 SU during that span.

First baseman Carlos Santana and shortstop Francisco Lindor have led the Indians’ hitters this year. Santana is hitting .297/.418/.540 with 19 home runs, 52 RBIs and 60 runs scored, while Lindor is batting .296 with 14 homers, 32 RBIs, 45 runs and 13 stolen bases.

In the visiting dugout, Minnesota’s pitchers have allowed 4.4 runs per game and its starters own a 3.77 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 8.31 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.30, along with a WHIP of 1.19 and a K-per-9 of 9.36.

The Twins offense has slashed .272/.338/.497 on its way to 5.7 runs scored per game this season, including 5.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

Minnesota’s hitters have been paced by shortstop Jorge Polanco and outfielder Eddie Rosario. Polanco is hitting .312/.368/.514 with 13 home runs, 42 RBIs and 57 runs scored, while Rosario (.282/.312/.529) has produced 20 homers, 60 RBIs and 51 runs scored.

The Twins have gained 14.0 units and are 36-33 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 34 of those games, compared to 32 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Indians have lost 5.7 units and are 29-32 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 24 of those games, as opposed to 34 that’ve gone under.

Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Indians, ATS Winner – Twins, O/U – OVER


Betting Notes

Minnesota has logged 23 extra-base hits over its last five contests. Cleveland has 26 XBH over its last five.

Both teams have launched 17 home runs over their last 10 games.

The Twins have a team OPS of .835 this season and an OPS of .823 when facing right-handed pitchers. The Indians’ OPS sits at .741 overall and .764 against righties.

Minnesota has recorded 26.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 29.0 over its last five.

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