Last Updated: 2019-03-15
The Milwaukee Bucks (51-17), the league’s top shooting defense, will square off against the Miami Heat (32-35) at AmericanAirlines Arena. Milwaukee is a 5-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 220 points. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on Friday, March 15, 2019, and it can be seen on NBATV.
Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat Betting Preview
The Bucks were victorious over the New Orleans Pelicans in their last game, 130-113, covering as 10-point favorites. With 23 points, seven assists and five rebounds, Milwaukee’s Khris Middleton put together a good outing. Milwaukee dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a free throw rate of 0.247 (above their season average of 0.194) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.546 (below their season average of 0.551). New Orleans was 0.103 and 0.477, respectively, for those same stats. The two teams combined to put up 243 points, which finished over the projected point total of 237.
In the Heat’s last game, they comfortably covered the 2-point spread against the Detroit Pistons, 108-74. Miami’s Hassan Whiteside played well, contributing 13 points and 11 rebounds. Miami dominated every facet of the game. They had a turnover percentage of 10.4 (better than their season average of 13.0) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 32.5 (above their season average of 25.6). For those same stats, Detroit was 16.7 and 20.8, respectively. The two clubs collectively scored 182 points, which was well under the O/U total of 208.
Miami might have difficulty finding the bottom of the net as they clash against one of the league’s best defenses. Milwaukee ranks first in defensive efficiency, while the Heat rank 23rd in offensive efficiency.
Of Milwaukee’s 68 games, 35 have finished under the projected point total, while 35 of Miami’s 67 games have finished over the O/U total. Looking at straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records, the Bucks have a substantial advantage. They are 51-17 SU and 40-26-2 ATS, while the Heat are 32-35 SU and 35-31-1 ATS.
These two teams have already met twice this season, each winning once. In the most recent matchup, Giannis Antetokounmpo registered a triple-double. He had 12 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists and the Bucks beat the Heat 124-86, covering as 9-point favorites. The two teams combined to score 210 points, which was 8 points below the projected point total of 218 points. The Bucks played a flawless game. They had an absurdly low turnover percentage of 6.3 and an offensive rebounding percentage of 15.2. For those same stats, the Heat were 16.0 and 8.0, respectively.
Bucks at Heat Odds Prediction
Prediction: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
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The Heat average 32.2 three pointers per game, which ranks 13th in the NBA. The Bucks rank last in three pointers allowed per game (35.2).
Milwaukee ranks third in points in the paint per game (54.1) while Miami ranks 14th (48.9).
Milwaukee ranks second in steals allowed per game (6.9) while Miami ranks 18th (7.6).
Milwaukee ranks second in blocks per game (6.0) while Miami ranks 12th in blocks allowed per game (4.8).
Milwaukee is 21-13-2 ATS on the road, while Miami is 14-20-1 ATS at home.
The total has gone under in 19 of the Bucks’ 36 road games, while 20 of the Heat’s 35 home games have gone over.
Miami is 18-3 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Milwaukee is 17-1.
The Bucks are 50-13 when they score above 100 points, while the Heat are 29-19.
The Heat rank third in assists allowed per game (23.0) while the Bucks rank 17th (24.7).
Milwaukee ranks second in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.5) while Miami ranks 26th (17.8).
The Bucks rank sixth in fast break points per game (17.5) while the Heat rank 29th (9.7).
The Heat rank third in rebounds allowed per game (43.1) while the Bucks rank 14th (44.8).
Miami ranks sixth in second chance points per game (14.3) while Milwaukee ranks 28th (11.6).
Miami is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in its last five games.
Over its last five games, Milwaukee is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
The Heat have outscored opponents by an average of 7.4 points in their last five games. On the season, Miami has scored an equal number of points as their opponents.
During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 119.4 points per game (1.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 112.0 points per game (3.6 above their season average).