Don’t expect a fast-paced game when the Milwaukee Bucks (30-23), 1.5-point underdogs, visit Miami to take on the Heat (29-26). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 198.5 points and it can be seen on Fox Sports Net Wisconsin at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, February 9, 2018.
Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat ATS Odds
In their last matchup, the Heat were beaten by the Houston Rockets, 109-101, while the Bucks beat the New York Knicks, 103-89.
Milwaukee played a nearly flawless game. They had a solid free throw rate of 0.256 (above their season average of 0.227) and a turnover percentage of 13.0 (worse than their season average of 12.4). New York was 0.112 and 15.1, respectively, for those same stats. Miami, meanwhile, had an offensive rebounding percentage of 32.6 (above their season average of 20.7). Miami rallied around Josh Richardson, who contributed 30 points and five assists. Meanwhile, Giannis Antetokounmpo played a key role for Milwaukee with 23 points, 11 rebounds and six assists.
Half-court execution will be critical when a pair of the league’s slowest-paced teams square off. Miami currently ranks 28th in possessions per game (96.6) and Milwaukee is 27th (96.7). Also, the Bucks rank 29th in offensive rebounding percentage (19.4 percent), while the Heat rank fourth in defensive rebounding percentage (79.8 percent).
A little over half of the Bucks’ games have finished over the total. Milwaukee holds records of 30-23 straight up (SU) and 24-24-5 against the spread (ATS).
Of the Heat’s 55 games, 31 have finished under the total. Moreover, Miami owns records of 29-26 SU and 26-27-2 ATS.
Richardson has been playing at a high level as of late for Miami, averaging 16.0 points, 3.4 assists, 1.6 blocks and 1.4 steals over the last five games.
The Heat have won both matchups against the Bucks this season. In their most recent game, the two teams combined for 207 points, just over the projected point total of 203. Miami won 106-101, covering as a 5-point underdog. Miami won the rebounding battle. The Heat had more offensive rebounds (10 vs. five), defensive rebounds (36 vs. 33) and total rebounds (46 vs. 38). Hassan Whiteside put up a double-double in the victory with 27 points and 14 rebounds.
The Bucks rank ninth in points in the paint per game (45.5) while the Heat rank 13th in points allowed in the paint per game (43.4).
Milwaukee ranks fifth in steals per game (8.5) while Miami ranks 25th (7.0).
The Heat rank first in assists allowed per game (20.1) while the Bucks rank 16th (23.0).
Milwaukee ranks third in blocks allowed per game (4.0) while Miami ranks 14th (4.7).
Milwaukee averages 17.6 points off turnovers per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. Miami ranks 13th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.9).
The Heat rank eighth in three pointers attempted per game (30.9) while the Bucks rank 27th (24.5).
The Heat rank 20th in rebounds per game (42.5) while the Bucks rank last (39.1).
Miami is 27th in the league with 10.5 second chance points per game while Milwaukee is 29th with 10.3 second chance points per game.
Milwaukee ranks ninth in fast break points per game (13.5) while Miami ranks 28th (7.5).
In games where they allow less than 100 points, Milwaukee is 15-3 and Miami is 17-6.
The Bucks are 25-12 when they score above 100 points, while the Heat are 20-10.
Miami is 7-16-2 ATS at home, while Milwaukee is 14-10-2 ATS on the road.
The Bucks have 13 overs, 12 unders and 1 push in 26 road games.
The Heat have 13 unders, 11 overs and 1 push in 25 home games.
The Bucks are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Heat are 2-3.
In their last five games, Milwaukee has 5 unders, while Miami has 3 overs and 2 unders.
During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 100.0 points per game (4.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 95.2 points per game (9.4 below their season average).
The Heat’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 4.4, up from 1.0 for the season.