A five-game home winning streak hangs in the balance for the Los Angeles Lakers (47-13) when they challenge the Milwaukee Bucks (53-9) at Staples Center. Neither team is favored and the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 228 points. Tip-off is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on Friday, March 6, 2020, and it can be seen on ESPN.
Milwaukee Bucks at Los Angeles Lakers ATS Preview
The Bucks won big over the Indiana Pacers in their last matchup, 119-100, covering as 14.5-point favorites. Giannis Antetokounmpo was the game’s leading scorer with 29 points on 10-for-23 shooting. Milwaukee dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a free throw rate of 0.213 (above their season average of 0.197) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 25.6 (above their season average of 20.9). Indiana was 0.093 and 13.5, respectively, for those same stats. The two teams combined to put up 219 points, which came in just under the projected point total of 221.
The last time the Lakers took the floor, they covered the 10-point spread against the Philadelphia 76ers, 120-107. With 37 points on 13-for-19 shooting, Anthony Davis was the game’s leading scorer. The Lakers forced 15 turnovers and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.610 (above their season average of 0.549). The two squads combined to record 227 points, which came in over the O/U total of 215.
This battle pits one of the league’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses as Los Angeles currently ranks fifth in offensive efficiency and Milwaukee is first in defensive efficiency.
Of Milwaukee’s 62 games, 33 have finished under the O/U total, while 31 of Los Angeles’ 60 games have finished under the O/U total. Both teams have excellent straight up (SU) records (53-9 for Milwaukee; 47-13 for Los Angeles), but the Bucks hold a slight advantage against the spread (ATS). Milwaukee is 36-26 ATS, while the Lakers are 33-26-1.
These two teams have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined to score 215 points, which was under the projected point total of 227. The Bucks won 111-104, covering as 4-point favorites. The Bucks dominated every stat category in the game. They had a turnover percentage of 12.5 and a superb free throw rate of 0.299. For those same stats, the Lakers put up marks of 16.6 and 0.225, respectively. In the loss, Davis recorded a double-double with 36 points and 10 rebounds.
Bucks at Lakers ATS Prediction
Prediction: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Under
The Lakers rank second in second chance points per game (14.5) while the Bucks rank 18th (12.6).
Los Angeles ranks first in blocks allowed per game (3.8) while Milwaukee ranks ninth (4.5).
Los Angeles ranks fourth in steals per game (8.6) while Milwaukee ranks 19th (7.4).
Los Angeles ranks fifth in assists per game (26.1) while Milwaukee ranks 10th in assists allowed per game (23.7).
Milwaukee is 17-14 ATS on the road with 17 unders and 14 overs.
At home, Los Angeles is 16-12-1 ATS with 16 unders and 13 overs.
Milwaukee and Los Angeles are both 16-0 when they allow less than 100 points.
The Lakers are 43-11 when they reach the century mark, while the Bucks are 52-8.
The Lakers rank fourth in points off turnovers per game (18.8) while the Bucks rank 17th (16.8).
Milwaukee averages 18.8 fast break points per game, which ranks third in the league. Los Angeles ranks 29th in fast break points allowed per game (16.8).
The Lakers rank eighth in three pointers allowed per game (32.7) while the Bucks rank 29th (38.6).
The Bucks rank first in points allowed in the paint per game (38.6) while the Lakers rank eighth (46.2).
Los Angeles ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (42.1) while Milwaukee ranks 19th (45.5).
Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over in its last five games.
Across its last five outings, Milwaukee is 3-2 ATS with 5 unders.
The Lakers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 8.6, up from 7.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 108.4 points per game (10.7 below their season average) and allowed an average of 94.6 points per game (12.1 below their season average).