Home NBA Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets ATS Odds Pick 03/09/20

Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets ATS Odds Pick 03/09/20

The Milwaukee Bucks (53-11), the NBA’s top scoring team, will go head-to-head against the Denver Nuggets (42-21) at Pepsi Center. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on Monday, March 9, 2020, and it can be seen on NBATV.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Denver Nuggets Free Preview

The Bucks fell to the Phoenix Suns in their last matchup, 140-131. They failed to cover as 2-point underdogs. With 39 points on 13-for-26 shooting, Khris Middleton was the game’s high scorer. Phoenix did a terrific job of converting from the charity stripe (27-31; 87.1 percent). Milwaukee, meanwhile, had a better turnover percentage (8.8 vs. 12.4). The two teams combined to score 271 points, which came in well over the O/U total of 228.5.

The last time the Nuggets played, they were 9.5-point favorites and fell to the Cleveland Cavaliers, 104-102. Will Barton led Denver in scoring with 22 points on 9-for-18 shooting. Cleveland had a better free throw rate (0.105 vs. 0.035). Denver, on the other hand, forced the Cavaliers into a turnover percentage of 20.5 (above their season average of 13.9). The two teams collectively scored 206 points, which was under the O/U total of 219.

The battle on the backboards could prove decisive, pitting strength against strength. The Nuggets are among the NBA’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking second in offensive rebounding percentage at 25.1 percent. Meanwhile, Milwaukee ranks first in the league at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 81.7 percent. It will also be a tale of two paces as the up-tempo Bucks rank third in possessions per game, while the slower-paced Nuggets rank 29th.

Of Milwaukee’s 63 games that accepted bets, 34 have finished under the O/U total, while 33 of Denver’s 63 games have finished under the projected point total. Looking at straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records, the Bucks have a significant advantage. They are 53-11 SU and 36-27 ATS, while the Nuggets are 42-21 SU and 27-30-6 ATS.

These two teams have already met once this season. The two teams combined for 242 points in that game, which was well over the projected point total of 225.5. The Nuggets won 127-115, covering as 13-point underdogs. The Nuggets dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a solid effective field goal percentage of 0.590 and an offensive rebounding percentage of 15.2. For those same stats, the Bucks were 0.516 and 14.0, respectively. In the loss, Giannis Antetokounmpo had a double-double with 31 points and 16 rebounds.

Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets ATS Prediction

Prediction: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Under

Notes

Betting Notes:

The Bucks rank third in fast break points per game (18.6) while the Nuggets rank 21st (11.5).

Denver ranks fifth in second chance points per game (14.3) while Milwaukee ranks 20th (12.5).

Milwaukee ranks third in blocks per game (6.0) while Denver ranks 20th (4.6).

Milwaukee is 17-15 ATS on the road with 18 unders and 14 overs.

At home, Denver is 14-15-3 ATS with 17 unders and 15 overs.

Denver is 14-1 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Milwaukee is 16-0.

When reaching 100 points, the Nuggets are 39-16 and the Bucks are 52-10.

The Bucks rank sixth in assists per game (26.0) while the Nuggets rank 22nd in assists allowed per game (25.1).

Milwaukee ranks fourth in three pointers attempted per game (38.4) while Denver ranks 26th (30.1).

The Bucks rank first in rebounds per game (51.8) while the Nuggets rank 20th (44.3).

The Nuggets average 8.1 steals per game, which ranks 10th in the NBA. The Bucks rank 12th in steals allowed per game (7.3).

Milwaukee ranks first in points allowed in the paint per game (38.9) while Denver ranks 19th (49.0).

Bettings Trends:

Denver is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in its last five games.

Over its last five games, Milwaukee is 2-3 ATS with 5 unders.

The Nuggets have been outscored by an average of 6.0 points in their last five games. On the season, Denver has defeated opponents by an average of 3.1 points.

During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 107.0 points per game (12.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 108.6 points per game (1.3 above their season average).

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