Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals Betting Pick 10/01/19

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The Washington Nationals are playing host to the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Wild Card Elimination Game. The game officially gets going at 8:08 p.m. ET and this winner-take-all matchup will be televised on TBS.

Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals Odds

Milwaukee (+160) is the underdog to Washington (-170) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this night game at 8 runs (+100 for the over and -120 for the under). There’s a runline of Brewers +1.5 (-135) and Nationals -1.5 (+115) for this matchup.

In the regular season, the Brewers went 89-73 SU and 76-86 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 4.4 units for moneyline bettors, despite having lost 16.9 units ATS. Milwaukee is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. The Nationals, on the other hand, are 93-69 SU and 92-70 ATS. The team has gained 4.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 18.1 units ATS. Washington has covered the spread six times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.

Washington games have had an over/under record of 76-76-10 in 2019. The Brewers have been a solid under bet with a total record of 69-87-6.

Brandon Woodruff is getting the nod for the visiting Brewers. The right-handed Woodruff (11-3, 3.62 ERA) has recorded 143 punchouts in 121.2 innings so far. He’s 1-0 with nine strikeouts and a 1.50 ERA against Washington this year.

The Nationals are sending righty Max Scherzer (11-7, 2.92 ERA) to the mound. Scherzer has 243 strikeouts and 33 walks as well as a 1.03 WHIP. Scherzer is 0-0 with 10 strikeouts and a 1.50 ERA in one start against Milwaukee this year.

As a unit, Washington’s pitching staff has given up 4.5 runs per game overall this year. Its starting pitching staff has a 3.53 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.68 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 9.0 K/9.

The Washington hitters have put up 5.4 runs per contest, including 6.7 per game over its last 10 games and 7.4 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .319/.392/.542 over its last five contests and is 5-0 SU during that stretch.

The Nationals’ offense has been led by third baseman Anthony Rendon and outfielder Adam Eaton. Rendon is slashing .319/.412/.598 with 34 home runs, 126 RBIs and 117 runs scored, while Eaton’s line is .279/.365/.428 with 15 homers, 49 RBIs, 103 runs and 15 stolen bases.

In the visiting dugout, Milwaukee’s pitchers have allowed 4.7 runs per game and its starters own a 4.40 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 8.40 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.40, along with a K/9 of 10.21.

Brewers hitters have slashed .246/.331/.438 on their way to 4.7 runs scored per game this season, including 5.9 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 5.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Milwaukee’s hitters have been paced by outfielders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, who have combined to blast 55 home runs. Yelich is slashing .329/.429/.671 with 44 home runs, 97 RBIs, 100 runs and 30 steals, while Cain is hitting .260/.325/.372 with 11 homers, 48 RBIs, 75 runs and 18 stolen bases.

The Brewers have gained 5.4 units and are 55-58 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 53 of those games, compared to 57 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Nationals have netted 1.3 units and are 68-53 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 60 of those games, as opposed to 56 which went under the total.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Nationals, ATS Winner – Brewers, O/U – OVER

Notes

Betting Trends

The over has cashed in four of Washington’s last seven games.

The Brewers have a team OPS of .769 this season and an OPS of .761 against right-handed pitchers. The Nationals’ OPS sits at .798 overall and .787 versus righties.

The Nationals have won 10 of their last 11 games SU.

The Milwaukee defense has allowed 10 errors over the last 10 games, compared to only five errors for Washington over its last 10.

The Brewers have hit 14 home runs in their last 10 games. The Nationals have hit 13 over their last 10.