The Milwaukee Brewers head to PNC Park on Thursday night to start a four-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates. These two NL Central foes already met twice in 2022, and the Brewers swept the Pirates in a couple of three-game sets.
According to MyBookie Sportsbook, Milwaukee is a -130 road fave for Thursday’s battle, while the totals sit at 8.5 runs, so here’s the best Brewers vs. Pirates betting pick.
The Brewers are riding a four-game win streak
The 44-33 Milwaukee Brewers just swept a two-game interleague series on the road against Tampa Bay, outlasting the Rays 5-3 on both occasions. They’ve won four games in a row and nine of their previous 12 contests at any location.
The Brewers had a rough patch in June but managed to turn things around in the second half of the month. They were topping the NL Central on Wednesday, one game ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals.
Adrian Houser will toe the slab Thursday, hoping to bounce back from a heavy loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. Milwaukee lost to Toronto 9-4 last Friday, and Houser yielded five earned runs on nine hits across six innings of work. The 29-year-old righty is 4-8 with an underwhelming 4.50 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 14 starts (74 innings) this season.
The Pirates just snapped their five-game streak
The Pittsburgh Pirates outlasted the Washington Nationals 8-7 on Wednesday afternoon to finish their six-game road trip with a 1-5 record. The Pirates put an end to their five-game losing streak and improved to 30-45 on the season thanks to Bryan Reynolds’ three home runs and six RBIs.
Pittsburgh is 12 games behind the bottom wild card in the National League. The Pirates are 9-18 in June, sporting a 4.62 ERA and 1.47 WHIP along with a .213/.276/.389 triple-slash at the plate. They’ve scored only 20 runs over the last six games.
JT Brubaker will get the ball Thursday and take on the Brewers for the second time this season. Back in April, Brubaker was charged for a loss in a 5-2 defeat at American Family Field in Milwaukee, yielding four runs (two earned) on a couple of hits and walks across five innings. The 28-year-old righty holds a 1-7 record, 4.14 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and 76/31 K/BB ratio in 15 starts (76 frames) in 2022.
- 8-0 in the last eight games against Pittsburgh
- 9-3 in the last 12 games overall
- 1-5 in the last six games overall
- 2-11 in the last 13 home games against Milwaukee
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pick
The Brewers are looking to keep the good times rolling. They are undefeated in eight straight meetings with the Pirates and given their recent form, the Brewers should extend their dominance over Pittsburgh.
Adrian Houser meets the Bucs for the first time this season, and the current Pirates lineup has only seven hits and a .288 OPS in 40 at-bats against him. I don’t trust Houser, but the Brewers have plenty of dangerous arms in their bullpen, which has recorded a 3.04 ERA and 3.25 FIP in the last ten days and 26.2 innings of work.
Pick: Take Milwaukee Brewers at -130
The Pirates’ bullpen is 1-5 with a pedestrian 5.97 ERA and a solid 3.64 FIP in the last ten days and 31.2 frames of work. JT Brubaker has allowed 15 runs on 35 hits through his five starts (28.1 innings) in June, so I lean toward the over on the totals even though the Brewers’ bullpen could easily shut down the Pirates down the stretch.
If Adrian Houser continues to struggle, he’ll allow a few runs to the Pirates early. On the other side, JT Brubaker will have a tall task to keep the Brewers quiet. Milwaukee has 18 hits, five home runs, and a .936 OPS in 76 at-bats against Brubaker. Rowdy Tellez hit one of those five homers, and the 27-year-old slugger has four dingers in his last three games.
Pick: Go over 8.5 runs at -120