Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Free Pick 05/15/19

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Last Updated: 2019-05-15

The Milwaukee Brewers will face off against the Philadelphia Phillies. The opening pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET and NBC Sports Philadelphia will be showing this NL showdown.

Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Vegas is listing Milwaukee (+105) as the underdog to Philadelphia (-115). If you think this game’s total will go under 8.5 runs scored, then bookmakers are teeing up even money odds (+100). Playing the over can return -120 odds. Gamblers can also bet on the game’s spread with the most recent runline odds sitting at Brewers +1.5 runs (-200) and Phillies -1.5 runs (+170).

The Phillies are 24-17 straight up (SU) and 22-18 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 4.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 3.4 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Brewers have gone 25-19 SU this year and are 21-22 against the spread. They’ve gained 4.8 units for moneyline bettors in the season’s early going, but have lost 3.3 units ATS. Milwaukee’s covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

Philadelphia games have an 18-22 over/under record thus far in 2019. Milwaukee has been a decent under bet with a total record of 17-25-1.

Gio Gonzalez is getting the nod for the visiting Brewers. The southpaw Gonzalez is 1-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 12 strikeouts. He has yet to face Philadelphia this year, but he made three starts against the Phillies in 2018, putting together a 1-0 record against them with a 5.40 ERA and 15 strikeouts.

The Phillies are sending righty Jake Arrieta (4-3, 3.78 ERA) to the hill. Arrieta has 42 strikeouts and 19 walks to his credit, along with a 1.32 WHIP. Arrieta made two starts against the team in 2018, posting a 0-2 record in 2018, compiling a 0-2 record with an 8.31 ERA.

Milwaukee’s pitchers have allowed 4.6 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.41 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 8.65 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.16, along with a K-per-9 of 9.88.

The Brewers offense has slashed .247/.330/.432 on its way to 4.8 runs scored per game this season, including 4.4 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

Milwaukee’s hitters have been led by outfielders Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich, who collectively have belted 20 home runs. Cain is slashing .264/.318/.404 with four home runs, 18 RBIs and 27 runs scored. Yelich (.328/.446/.723) is up to 16 homers, 38 RBIs, 35 runs and eight steals.

In the other dugout, Philadelphia’s pitchers have allowed 4.2 runs per game overall in 2019. The team’s starters have an ERA of 3.92, a WHIP of 1.34 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.0. The bullpen has a 3.71 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 9.1 K/9.

The Philadelphia offense has put up 5.1 runs per contest, including 5.3 per game over its last 10 games and 4.4 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .222/.326/.299 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that span.

Second baseman Cesar Hernandez and first baseman Rhys Hoskins have led the Phillies’ batters this year. Hernandez is slashing .304/.371/.459 with four home runs, 17 RBIs and 22 runs scored, while Hoskins has produced a line of .279/.408/.578 with 11 homers, 35 RBIs and 26 runs scored.

The Brewers have gained 2.1 units and are 12-17 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 13 of those games, compared to 15 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Phillies have lost 3.8 units and are 3-5 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in four of those games, compared to four which went under the total.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Brewers, O/U – OVER


Betting Trends

The over has cashed in only two of Philadelphia’s last seven games.

Milwaukee has posted 22.6 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 21.8 over its last five.

The Brewers have hit nine home runs in their last 10 games, including five over their last five.

The Brewers have a team OPS of .762 this season and an OPS of .750 when facing right-handed pitchers. The Phillies’ OPS stands at .744 overall and .744 versus righties.

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