Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick 05/16/19

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Last Updated: 2019-05-16

Lorenzo Cain and the Milwaukee Brewers will be taking on the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The game gets underway 1:05 p.m. ET and NBC Sports Philadelphia will be televising this NL matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Philadelphia (getting -125 odds) is hosting this one as the favorite over Milwaukee and oddsmakers have the Over/Under for this afternoon’s game at 8.5 runs. Odds for playing the game’s total sit at -125 for the over and +105 for the under. This game currently has a runline of Brewers +1.5 (-180) and Phillies -1.5 (+160).

The Brewers have gone 26-19 SU this year and are 22-22 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 5.8 units for moneyline bettors through the early part of the season, despite having lost 2.0 units ATS. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 24-18 SU and 22-19 ATS. The team’s gained 3.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 1.9 units ATS.

Phillies games have an over/under record of 18-23 so far in 2019. The Brewers have been a decent under bet with a total record of 17-26-1.

Zach Davies will get the start for Milwaukee. The right-handed Davies is 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA and 31 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Phillies this year and did not record a start against them in 2018, either.

The Phillies will deploy righty Zach Eflin (5-3, 2.47 ERA) to the mound. Eflin has 38 strikeouts and seven walks as well as a 1.02 WHIP. Eflin made two starts against the Brewers in 2018, putting together a spotless 2-0 record with a 2.45 ERA and 15 strikeouts.

Philadelphia’s pitching staff has allowed 4.2 runs per game overall in 2019 as a unit. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 3.97, a WHIP of 1.35 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.0. The bullpen has a 3.63 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 9.1 K/9.

The Philadelphia offense has put up 5.0 runs per contest, including 4.7 per game over its last 10 games and 4.6 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .246/.332/.333 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that span.

The Phillies’ batters have been led by second baseman Cesar Hernandez and first baseman Rhys Hoskins. Hernandez is hitting .298/.368/.450 with four home runs, 17 RBIs and 22 runs scored, and the line for Hoskins stands at .278/.404/.570 with 11 homers, 35 RBIs and 26 runs.

For the visitors, Milwaukee’s pitchers have allowed 4.5 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.34 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 8.57 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.12, along with a WHIP of 1.41.

The Brewers offense has slashed .246/.331/.427 on its way to 4.8 runs scored per game this year, including 4.5 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

Outfielders Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich have led Milwaukee’s offense. Cain is slashing .265/.325/.403 with four home runs, 18 RBIs, 29 runs and five steals, while Yelich (.333/.451/.716) is up to 16 homers, 38 RBIs, 36 runs and eight stolen bases.

The Brewers have gained 3.1 units and are 13-17 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 13 of those games, compared to 16 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 6.8 units and are 19-14 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in 14 of those games, compared to 19 that went under.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Brewers, O/U – OVER


Betting Trends

The under has cashed in five of Philadelphia’s last seven games.

The Brewers have an OPS of .758 this season and an OPS of .744 against right-handed pitchers. The Phillies’ OPS stands at .743 overall and .742 versus righties.

Milwaukee has recorded 21.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 21.0 over its last five.

The Brewers have hit nine home runs in their last 10 games. The Phillies have hit five over their last 10.

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