Christian Yelich and the surging Milwaukee Brewers will head east to face off against their NL Central rival Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Fox Sports Ohio will broadcast the action. The opening pitch will be at 6:40 p.m. ET.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds
Cincinnati (getting -130 odds) is hosting this one as the favorite over Milwaukee and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this night game at 8.5 runs. The odds for playing the game’s total sit at -105 for the over and -115 for the under. There’s a runline of Brewers +1.5 (-175) and Reds -1.5 (+155) for this matchup.
The Brewers are 86-70 SU and have gone 73-83 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 6.1 units for gamblers taking the moneyline, despite having lost 16.5 units ATS. Milwaukee has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Reds, on the other hand, are 73-83 SU and 83-73 ATS. The team has lost 8.3 units for moneyline bettors and 0.3 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.
Reds games have an over/under record of 58-89-9 in 2019. The Brewers have also been a strong under bet with a total record of 67-84-5.
Adrian Houser is getting the nod for the visiting Brewers. The right-handed Houser is 6-7 with a 3.83 ERA and 109 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with seven strikeouts and a 4.50 ERA against Cincinnati this year.
The Reds will send righty Sonny Gray (11-7, 2.80 ERA) to the mound. Gray has 199 strikeouts and 66 walks as well as a 1.09 WHIP. Gray is 2-0 with 34 strikeouts and a 1.85 ERA over four starts against Milwaukee this year.
As a unit, Cincinnati’s pitching staff has allowed 4.4 runs per game overall this year. Its starters have a 4.02 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.48 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. In 70 games against divisional opponents, Reds starters have an ERA of 4.11 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.29.
Cincinnati’s offense is putting up 4.4 runs per outing, including 4.7 per game against divisional foes and 2.8 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .232/.306/.339 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that span.
Third baseman Eugenio Suarez and shortstop Jose Iglesias have led the way for the Reds’ hitters this year. Suarez is hitting .272/.353/.574 with 48 home runs, 102 RBIs and 86 runs scored, and Iglesias has put up a line of .287/.314/.406 with 11 homers, 55 RBIs and 60 runs.
In the other dugout, Milwaukee’s pitchers have allowed 4.8 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.49 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.43 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.36, along with a WHIP of 1.35.
Brewers hitters have slashed .247/.331/.439 on their way to 4.7 runs scored per game in 2019, including 4.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (4-1 SU).
Milwaukee’s offensive production has been powered by outfielders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. Yelich is slashing .329/.429/.671 with 44 home runs, 97 RBIs, 100 runs and 30 stolen bases, while Cain (.252/.318/.358) has produced 10 homers, 47 RBIs, 73 runs and 18 stolen bases.
The Brewers have gained 7.1 units and are 52-55 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 51 of those games, as opposed to 54 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 1.5 units and are 63-54 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in 44 of those games, compared to 67 that went under the total.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Free MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Brewers, O/U – OVER
The under has cashed in five of Milwaukee’s last seven games.
The Brewers have a team OPS of .770 this season and an OPS of .765 against right-handed pitchers. The Reds’ OPS sits at .739 overall and .729 against righties.
The Brewers have won eight of their last nine games SU.
The Milwaukee defense has coughed up five errors over the last five games, compared to two errors for Cincinnati over its last five.
The Brewers have hit 14 home runs in their last 10 games. The Reds have hit 13 over their last 10.