Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Free Pick 05/17/19

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Last Updated: 2019-05-17

Freddie Freeman and the Atlanta Braves will play host to the Milwaukee Brewers at SunTrust Park. Fox Sports Net Wisconsin will be televising this NL showdown. The first pitch will be at 7:20 p.m. ET.

Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves Odds

Vegas is listing Milwaukee (+125) as the underdog to Atlanta (-135). Gamblers can wager on the game’s total with odds sitting at -120 for over nine runs and +100 for under nine. This game currently has a runline of Brewers +1.5 (-170) and Braves -1.5 (+150).

The Brewers are 27-19 SU and are 23-22 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 6.8 units for moneyline bettors over the early part of the season, despite having lost 1.1 units ATS. Milwaukee’s covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Braves, on the other hand, are 23-21 SU and 20-23 ATS. The team has lost 2.0 units for moneyline bettors and 3.0 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

Braves games have had an over/under record of 22-18-3 so far in 2019. Brewers games have gone under 27 times, gone over 17 times and pushed on one occasion.

The right-handed Jhoulys Chacin is the projected starter for the visiting Brewers. Chacin is 3-4 with a 4.57 ERA and 33 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Braves this year and only made one start against them in 2018 (1-0, 2.57 ERA and seven strikeouts over seven innings).

The Braves will put the ball in the left hand of Max Fried (5-2, 3.25 ERA), who has 41 strikeouts and nine walks as well as a 1.20 WHIP. Fried only made one start against the Brewers in 2018 (0-1, 12.00 ERA across three innings).

Atlanta’s pitching staff has allowed 4.8 runs per game overall this season as a unit. The team’s starters have an ERA of 4.40, a WHIP of 1.35 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.3. The bullpen has a 4.51 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 9.4 K/9.

The Atlanta hitters have put up 4.8 runs per contest, including 3.9 per game over its last 10 games and 5.6 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .289/.362/.440 over its last five contests and is 4-1 SU during that span.

The Braves’ batters have been led by first baseman Freddie Freeman and second baseman Ozzie Albies. Freeman is slashing .315/.411/.539 with eight home runs, 25 RBIs and 31 runs scored, and Albies is batting .254 with seven homers, 20 RBIs and 29 runs.

For the visiting squad, Milwaukee’s pitching staff allowed 4.5 runs per game and its starters own a 4.27 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 8.54 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.06, along with a K-per-9 of 9.77.

Brewers hitters have slashed .248/.335/.434 on their way to 4.9 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.3 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 5.4 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

Milwaukee’s hitters have been paced by outfielders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, who’ve collectively launched 22 home runs. Yelich is hitting .342/.458/.760 with 18 home runs, 40 RBIs, 39 runs and nine stolen bases, while Cain is hitting .265/.325/.403 with four homers, 18 RBIs, 29 runs and five stolen bases.

The Brewers have gained 2.6 units and are 9-5 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has cashed in four of those games, compared to 10 that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Braves have lost 2.1 units and are 16-16 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 14 of those games, compared to 16 that’ve gone under.

Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves Free MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Brewers, O/U – OVER


Betting Trends

The under has hit in four of Atlanta’s last seven games.

The Brewers have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games, including seven over their last five.

The Brewers have a total OPS of .769 this season and an OPS of .793 against left-handed pitchers. The Braves’ OPS stands at .774 overall and .812 against southpaws.

Milwaukee fielders have committed 10 errors over the last 10 games, compared to only four errors for Atlanta over its last 10.

The Braves have won five of their last six games SU.

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